We're slightly over a month into the MLB season, and Aaron Judge already appears to be running away with the AL MVP race.
The Yankees' slugger is hitting .412 with 47 hits, 28 runs scored, and 29 RBIs, leading the American League in all four stat categories. Judge's odds of winning the MVP award were +300 (25% implied probability) before the season started but have moved to -475 (82.6% implied probability) at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet following his torrid start.
For comparison, oddsmakers suggest Judge is far more likely to win the AL MVP than the Yankees are to win the AL East (-190).
There's a ton of baseball to be played, but if Judge earns MVP again, he'd be the first player in either league to win back-to-back awards since Miguel Cabrera in 2013.
AL MVP odds
| Player | Current Odds | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | -475 | +300 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +900 | +300 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +5000 | +750 |
| Mike Trout | +5000 | +2500 |
| Corey Seager | +6000 | +1300 |
| Jose Ramirez | +6000 | +1300 |
Bobby Witt Jr. is Judge's only competition. Witt is off to a solid start with a .312 average and .859 OPS. However, his counting stats (two home runs and 11 RBIs) are nowhere close to Judge's early production.
Gunnar Henderson has drifted massively from +750 to +5000, partly due to Judge's strong start but also because the Orioles shortstop is hitting .227 with five RBIs. Baltimore has struggled out of the gate, sitting at 11-18 and last in the AL East.
The NL MVP race is much tighter a month into the season. Preseason favorite Shohei Ohtani isn't off to the hottest of starts, allowing a few more contenders to throw their names in the hat. He was +145 before the season but has drifted to +300 as May nears.
NL MVP odds
| Player | Current Odds | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | +300 | +145 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +400 | +900 |
| Kyle Tucker | +400 | +1600 |
| Corbin Carroll | +450 | +4000 |
| Pete Alonso | +750 | +4000 |
| Francisco Lindor | +1500 | +2000 |
| Juan Soto | +2500 | +550 |
| Bryce Harper | +4000 | +1800 |
| Elly De La Cruz | +4000 | +1800 |
| Mookie Betts | +4000 | +1200 |
Ohtani is hitting a respectable .288 with a strong .942 OPS. Yet, he's somehow driven in only 10 runs, even though he's hit seven home runs. You'd have to expect his counting stats to catch up to his slash line. And once Ohtani returns to the mound, he'll have as strong of an MVP case as anyone.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Kyle Tucker, Corbin Carroll, and Pete Alonso are all priced under +1000, creating an early five-horse race.
Carroll and Alonso are the biggest risers in April, increasing their chances of winning the NL MVP from +4000 (2.4% implied probability) to 18.2% and 11.8%, respectively.
Juan Soto is the biggest faller down the oddsboard. He was the second favorite before the season started. He's hitting .250 with three homers and 12 RBIs despite the Mets' MLB-best 21-9 record, dropping his implied probability to win the MVP from 15.4% to 3.8%.
