We're back for another edition of Blue Jays takeaways. Things are a bit rocky after a rough 1-5 road trip through Houston and New York. Here, we take a look at some of the most pressing storylines surrounding the club.
Long ball proves elusive ... yet again
Stop me if you've heard this one before: The Blue Jays are struggling to hit the ball over the fence, as the club scored just nine runs on its recent six-game trip. A new hitting coach hasn't yet fixed what appears to ail the lineup. Yes, the Blue Jays have cut down on strikeouts and are better at making contact than lineups of past years. But almost all fans would gladly trade a few more whiffs for an increase in power like the 2021 and 2022 Blue Jays showcased.
Andrés Giménez and Anthony Santander are tied for the team lead in home runs with three, though neither player has an OPS above .600. The duo have combined to go 28-for-171 (.164) with 11 RBIs in April despite hitting in the middle of the order.
The stars will likely start to perform better, and Daulton Varsho's return will also help in the power department. Despite that, this just doesn't profile as a lineup that's all that likely to light up scoreboards and send baseballs flying even as the weather warms up. With the pressures of an extension behind him, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn't yet found his power stroke. He has only two homers in 103 at-bats. The inability to score runs in bunches puts pressure on every other facet of the roster, shrinking the margin for error when it comes to winning games. That reared its head against the Astros and Yankees, representing a continuation from last season.
Bo Bichette's confounding start
Bichette's performance at the plate has been, in a lot of ways, a microcosm of what's plagued Toronto this year. The two-time All-Star shortstop has been a roughly league-average hitter (99 wRC+) but has lacked the power he showcased when he led the AL in hits in consecutive seasons.
Bichette has never been a prolific power hitter but belted 20 or more home runs in three consecutive campaigns from 2021-23. He posted a 124 OPS+ during that span and averaged 24 homers, 89 RBIs, and 94 runs scored. It was fair to look at Bichette as one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball. However, Bichette struggled to produce and stay healthy in 2024, leading to some uncertainty about what version we would see this season. So far, it looks like Bichette's the same aggressive hitter, just without the same extra-base pop he showcased during that excellent three-year run.
Bichette does have eight doubles and 13 RBIs but is still without a home run in 101 at-bats in 2025. In fact, the 27-year-old hasn't sent a ball over the fence since last May 27 against the Chicago White Sox, a span of 218 at-bats. Bichette's fly-ball rate hasn't dropped dramatically from his career norms, leading to even more confusion about why the home runs have dried up so dramatically. The slow start won't do much to improve Bichette's bargaining power when he's expected to become a free agent at the end of the season.
Lack of offensive production at third base
The club is getting next to nothing in terms of positive offensive contributions from third basemen. Ernie Clement, Toronto's primary option, has a .527 OPS with zero homers, three doubles, and five RBIs in 26 games. It's not a knock on Clement as much as it is on Blue Jays management for thinking it was prudent to go into the the season with a utility player with a career OPS in the .600s as the everyday starter at a premium offensive position. The dearth of offensive production at third base is just another area of offensive exposure for which the Blue Jays don't appear to have much in the way of a concrete answer or solution.
Toronto ranks 24th in average, 26th in fWAR, 27th in RBIs, and 29th in OBP while sitting last in slugging, OPS, and home runs from the third-base position this season.
Addison Barger has experience at third base, but he's been used exclusively in right field this season. The options for improvement are limited in Triple-A, too. Orelvis Martinez is hitting .154/.247/.292 with two home runs and 29 strikeouts in 65 at-bats. Riley Tirotta owns a .939 OPS with three homers in Buffalo, but he also has a 32% strikeout rate and would need to be added to the 40-man roster.
The emergence of Brendon Little
While the offense has been tough to watch, the pitching staff remains impressive, with left-handed reliever Brendon Little being a bright spot. Little made 49 appearances in 2024, posting a respectable 3.74 ERA but managing only 7.09 K/9 in 45 2/3 innings. The 28-year-old has been a completely different pitcher this season, dominating hitters with a 14.25 K/9. He's had success against left-handed and right-handed batters, allowing manager John Schneider to be more aggressive in how he's deployed.
A devastating knuckle curve has been the biggest difference-maker for Little. The offering is inducing a whiff rate of almost 70% this year. Little's sinker has also piled up considerably more swing and miss than last season. It will be interesting to see if this is just noise from a smaller sample size or a sign that Little has unlocked something to allow him to become an elite high-leverage reliever.
Looking ahead to May
The Blue Jays finish April with a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. The Red Sox are far from perfect. However, they rank fifth in the league in runs, ninth in home runs, and sixth in OPS. They are more than capable of taking it to the Blue Jays if the pitching falters or the lineup continues to slump.
Following that, the Cleveland Guardians come to Toronto. Cleveland's had Toronto's number of late, winning 13 of 20 games against the Blue Jays over the past few seasons. The Blue Jays then head west to take on the Angels and Mariners before returning for a lengthy homestand against the Rays, Tigers, and Padres.
