TOKYO (AP) — Shohei Ohtani is widely regarded as the best player in Major League Baseball, and Ichiro Suzuki enters the Hall of Fame later this year, reminders that some of the top talent in American baseball is now Japanese.
That's a point of pride at home, but also a reason to worry.
What happens to baseball in Japan, to the country's pro league, if the stars all leave for the United States?
About a dozen Japanese played in MLB last season, headlined by Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. They came up through Nippon Professional Baseball and waited for free agency under the Japanese system, or were allowed to go earlier by their clubs.
But times are changing.
Two young stars — 19-year-old Rintaro Sasaki and 18-year-old Shotaro Morii — have moved directly to American baseball, bypassing NPB restrictions and unwritten societal norms of playing first in Japan. Sasaki is a freshman at Stanford, while Morii has a minor league contract with the Athletics.
Yamamoto signed a $325 million, 12-year deal last offseason and was asked a few weeks ago at spring training in Arizona if the loss of great players could hurt Japanese baseball.
"That's a good question, a difficult question," Yamamoto said through an interpreter. "There are lots of different opinions about it."
The outflow from Japan
A slugging first baseman, Rintaro Sasaki skipped the NPB draft last year and signed to play college baseball at Stanford. He attended Hanamaki Higashi High School, the same high school as Ohtani and where Sasaki's father, Hiroshi, is the baseball coach.
Sasaki will be eligible for the MLB draft in 2026.
"I don't know how I will influence Japanese high school baseball players, but I'm just going on my path, my way," he said speaking in English to The Associated Press.
His father has acknowledged pointing his son toward MLB rather than being the likely No. 1 draft choice in Japanese baseball. Sasaki can now earn money through name, image and likeness deals, just as other college athletes. Sasaki has such deals, all in Japan.
College athletes in the United States are also in line for millions more in revenue-sharing money.
Morii signed a $1.5 million minor-league deal in January with the A's, a potential two-way player — a shortstop and pitcher.
"I didn't want to regret about my decision when I think about my whole life and whole career," Morii said through an interpreter after signing.
A third player — Japan's top pitcher Roki Sasaki — just left the Chiba Lotte Marines after four seasons to join the Dodgers. In general, Japanese players stay nine seasons before being granted free agency, though clubs can let them go earlier.
The 23-year-old Sasaki agreed in January to a minor league contract with a $6.5 million signing bonus. Under the rules, had he waited two more years, he might have landed a nine-figure contract and the club would have picked up a hefty fee.
It's not clear why his Japanese club let him go early, seeming to take a financial hit. Some reports in Japan suggest he had an undisclosed contract that forced the club's hand.
Nippon Professional Baseball says local interest remains high
In a written statement to The Associated Press, NPB expressed confidence that baseball in Japan will remain popular despite the outflow of talent. It said its long history and traditions bolstered local support and cited "improved game production and fan service" as another factor in boosting attendance.
"We believe that this has maintained the appeal of the league as a whole even after star players have moved to MLB," NPB said. It added that "the success of young players has attracted attention, which has led to the popularity of NPB without any loss of interest from fans."
The AP asked NPB what it might do to keep talented players like Sasaki and Morii inside the Japanese system. Some have suggested a change to Japan's free agency rules might help.
"NPB is currently working with the 12 teams to further improve the development system and training environment, which are highly regarded overseas," it said. "In addition, the Japanese national team won the 2023 WBC, which has also increased interest in Japanese baseball among younger generations."
MLB wants top Japanese talent developing at home
Chris Marinak, MLB's chief operations officer, told The Associated Press in an interview that MLB prefers that local players develop at home; essentially not to do what Sasaki and Morii have done in circumventing the local system.
"Our general philosophy is to have locally born players play in their local professional leagues," Marinak said. "Anything we can do to encourage that would be consistent with our approach."
He described Japanese baseball as being in a "renaissance era" and said scouts have described the level as "the best they've ever seen."
Having Ohtani also has many benefits — on the field and in marketing.
"It helps to have a generational talent like Ohtani — essentially the best player in the game — to be from a different market," Marinak said. "It changes how you can communicate about the game in different markets."
Marinak, who works on the business side rather than the legal side, said he was not aware of any "direct conversations with NPB about changing the current system" to allow earlier free agency in Japanese baseball or to alter the posting system.
Marinak said MLB has "an active dialogue" with NPB and other leagues to share technology, best-business practices, rule changes and so forth. He argued that strong play by the Japanese in MLB has not hurt local baseball, but instead was driving interest.
"The more players that different countries are developing — and ultimately coming to Major League Baseball or wherever — that's good for that local league and that's good for Major League Baseball," he said.
Where is this going? Brazilian soccer might offer a hint
Five Japanese are on the rosters of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs when the teams open the MLB season on Tuesday and Wednesday at the Tokyo Dome.
"Japanese pro baseball has the potential of becoming Brazilian domestic football, where the best players go play in Europe and the kids play at home until they're good enough to play in Europe," said Jim Allen, who covered Japanese baseball for 12 years for the Japanese news agency Kyodo, and 12 more for the Daily Yomiuri newspaper.
Allen is the rare foreigner allowed to vote for the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame.
"The talent flow could go from being a garden hose to a fire hydrant if they don’t do something to prevent it," Allen said.
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AP Baseball Writers David Brandt, Ronald Blum and Janie McCauley contributed to this report.
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