Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seemingly adds another dollar to his next contract with every swing lately.
The Toronto Blue Jays star first baseman is one of MLB's hottest hitters, slashing .472/.538/.966 with 10 home runs and a league-leading 1.504 OPS in 24 games across the last 30 days.
Guerrero certainly looks to be turning into the prince that was promised, and he couldn't have picked a better time.
The 25-year-old has one more year of arbitration eligibility this winter before hitting free agency at the end of the 2025 season. Should Guerrero reach the open market, he'll be one of the most desired position players, if not the most desired, available.
The Blue Jays are expected to try to prevent Guerrero from wearing a different uniform. However, reaching a new deal won't be easy even though both parties have said they want to extend the relationship.
And despite general manager Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro saying they aim to compete for a championship in 2025, Toronto occupies the AL East basement this season and could be heading into a potential rebuild - or a retool if you prefer more optimistic language. The Blue Jays will need to be comfortable offering Guerrero a contract that'll shatter the franchise-record six-year, $150-million deal it gave George Springer in 2021. The team will also likely have to pick between extending Guerrero or fellow homegrown star Bo Bichette, who's in the midst of a career-worst campaign.
The Blue Jays need to decide where they stand on Guerrero before settling anything else this offseason - and there's an extensive list of things to do. Letting him play out next season without an extension in place seems like asking for trouble, especially if the club gets off to a slow start. If Toronto is out of contention near the trade deadline and Guerrero is unsigned, trading him becomes the best way to manage the asset.
So, what's a reasonable framework for Guerrero's next deal?
ESPN's Jeff Passan said last week on "Blair and Barker" that a first baseman wouldn't get a $300-plus million contract next offseason. But he walked that statement back several days later after speaking with a few people who believe $300 million for Guerrero is "more the floor than the ceiling."
First base isn't the premier position for big contracts, but Guerrero is well-positioned to shatter the richest deal ever handed out at the position.
Not only is Guerrero extremely talented, but he's also hitting free agency at age 26. Pujols, Cabrera, and Freeman were all in their 30s when they signed their deals. The closest comparable in age is Olson, who signed in 2022 well under market value rather than hit free agency. Olson grew up in Atlanta and owned a home in the area prior to being acquired from Oakland, and the circumstances reportedly led to him signing his deal with the Braves.
Guerrero could wait to see what Pete Alonso signs for this winter to get a better feel for the market. Alonso will enter his age-30 season next year but is one of MLB's premier power hitters. He has 217 career home runs to go with a .858 OPS. Alonso, however, has yet to match his 2019 rookie production of 53 homers and a career-best .941 OPS. He hasn't posted an OPS higher than .869 since.
With Guerrero expected to set the record for first basemen, where will his contract fall among the all-time richest deals?
Shohei Ohtani's $700-million pact is in a different stratosphere, even if the total dollars are a bit deceptive considering he's deferring $680 million. The Blue Jays were in on Ohtani right up until he chose the Los Angeles Dodgers - we all remember the plane fiasco - so ownership is clearly willing to spend big for the right player. You have to believe Guerrero is well aware of that.
The sweet spot for Guerrero's next deal likely falls somewhere between Bryce Harper's 13-year, $330-million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies - which seems like a steal at this point - and Rafael Devers' 10-year, $313.5-million extension signed with the Boston Red Sox.
Devers' deal is probably Guerrero's best comparison and will likely be what his agency tries to match or even eclipse when it comes time to negotiate.
Devers is a homegrown star for the Red Sox. He won a World Series with the club and was looked upon as being the anchor of the next great Boston teams as the club entered a retooling. Prior to his final year of team control at age 26, Devers inked a 10-year, $313.5-million extension that included his $17.5-million salary in his final arbitration year. The Red Sox weren't willing to play out the final season of his contract and allow him to test free agency. It was the longest and richest guaranteed deal for the franchise.
Guerrero will be the same age Devers was when he entered his final year of team control, and the pair have similar offensive production. Devers plays a more valuable position at third base and has become an adequate defender despite some early defensive troubles. Still, both Guerrero's and Devers' value come from their bats.
With Devers' offensive profile as the baseline, Guerrero can also argue the importance of his marketability. He ranked 17th out of all MLB players in jersey sales at the All-Star break, has several Canadian endorsement deals, and has been the biggest draw for fans in what's otherwise been a lost season. Guerrero was also born in Canada. And while he won't be representing the national team, something about that resonates with the fan base - in a city that has far too often watched its star players head south when given the opportunity.
These additional factors give Guerrero leverage when trying to sell his value to the franchise. He's not just going to get paid for his on-field contributions. He's much more than that.
There will likely be no shortage of suitors should Guerrero reach free agency. The New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, and San Francisco Giants could all have a need for the position and be a fit for him. Someone will pay. We just have to wait and see how much.
