We're coming off a 1-2 night on the diamond. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a single while Justin Verlander was roughed up against the Cardinals, giving us a split through our first two plays. Matt Waldron started the nightcap by striking out two of the first three batters he faced but picked up only two Ks over the next 18 at-bats, falling one shy of the over. Ouch.
We'll look to bounce back with three more plays for a busy Tuesday night.
Giants (+100) @ Diamondbacks (-120)
The Diamondbacks' offense is heating up. They've scored 28 runs over the past four outings and enter Tuesday riding a three-game winning streak.
The bats are in a great spot to remain hot against Kyle Harrison and the Giants. The young lefty is struggling right now, conceding at least three earned runs in four consecutive starts.
Harrison's underlying metrics over that stretch are alarming: He's posted a .412 xwOBA and allowed opponents to barrel up on 17.4% of his pitches, more than double the league average. He's giving up a ton of contact - and hard contact at that.
His struggles are even more apparent versus right-handed bats, with a barrel rate above 20% against them over the past month. Arizona rosters a ton of right-handers and could trot out as many as eight Tuesday night. That spells trouble for Harrison.
It's also worth noting that, against lefties, the Diamondbacks are one of the better offenses in the league. Arizona leads the majors in batting average and sits fifth in homers versus left-handed pitching.
The D-backs probably won't get many innings out of Blake Walston, so they'll need a lot out of their bullpen. But they should get more than enough run support to grind out a win and extend their streak to four games.
Bet: Diamondbacks (-120)
Jesús Luzardo: Under 2.5 earned runs
Luzardo started the season on rocky footing but has settled in nicely. He's allowed two or fewer runs in four of the past five contests, averaging only 1.4 earned runs in that span.
He now draws a Rays team that isn't exactly lethal against left-handed pitching. They own a .298 xwOBA versus lefties this season, ranking them ahead of only the White Sox and Marlins.
Tampa Bay has also scored three runs in only four of the past 13 games against left-handed starters. The Rays don't possess a ton of power and playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in Miami won't make life any easier.
Luzardo should put forth a quality start and escape this outing without much damage.
Odds: -125 (playable to -140)
Chris Flexen: Under 3.5 earned runs
Flexen's gone under this total in eight of 12 starts this season, including four of five on the road. He only allowed more than three runs on the road against a powerhouse Yankees team in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Over his other four away games, which came against the Royals, Phillies, Rays, and Twins, Flexen allowed only four combined runs. He fared well against a solid string of opponents.
The Cubs are competitive, but they're nothing special offensively. They sit 15th in runs per game, 15th in OBP, and 26th in batting average. They've also plated four runs against only one right-handed starter over the past month. That came against Hunter Greene, whose control issues were front and center in a five-walk performance.
I think Chicago will touch up Flexen in this game, but four runs is a lot to ask against a pitcher who generally doesn't throw more than five innings.
Odds: -155 (playable to -165)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.
