Skip to content

MLB Monday best bets: Brewers to get early jump on Cardinals

Icon Sportswire / Getty

We concluded last week with the fourth 2-1 night in five days, finishing up with a 9-6 record.

We'll look to pick up where we left off and start the week on a winning note with three plays for Monday's card. Let's get to them.

Brewers (-170) @ Cardinals (+145)

The Brewers are as hot as anybody in baseball. They own a 7-3 record over the last 10 games, and only the Rays have won more contests than Milwaukee over the past 30. The difference is just one.

The club's pitching is consistently good, and the offense is trending in the right direction. In fact, the Brewers have scored nearly as many runs per game as the Braves and Dodgers in September. That's always a good sign.

I expect Milwaukee to keep swinging the bats well Monday night against Adam Wainwright. He continues to post woefully bad numbers, sporting a .400 xwOBA over the last month. That won't help him bring down his ERA of nearly 8.0.

The Cardinals will have a much tougher time plating runs against Freddy Peralta. He's allowed two runs or less in six of his past seven starts, routinely striking out opposing batters in huge clusters while giving up very little.

Wainwright averages 4.2 runs against per start despite rarely pitching deep into games. Peralta is more than capable of seeing a lead through if the Brewers can plate a few runs against the Cardinals righty.

Look for Milwaukee to lead through five innings.

Bet: Brewers F5 -0.5 (-125)

Jordan Montgomery over 15.5 outs

Montgomery has been a frequent target for us this season and will continue to be so long as his line hangs low.

The veteran lefty has recorded at least 16 outs in 22 of 29 starts this season, good for a 76% success rate. Zooming in, he's done the job in 16 of his past 18 games - an 89% hit rate.

The Rangers were just swept by the Guardians and are desperate to get a result as they fight for their playoff lives. They'll no doubt lean heavily on Montgomery, especially considering they only got 3.2 innings from starter Jon Gray on Friday and 3.0 innings from opener Cody Bradford on Sunday afternoon.

Texas needs a quality start from Montgomery and length from him. That's something he's consistently provided all year.

While the Red Sox are a solid offensive team, they've struggled lately versus lefties. Boston has scored two runs or fewer against six of the past seven left-handed starters faced.

If Montgomery can keep the Red Sox to two or three runs, he should have no problem cruising past this number.

Odds: +120 (playable to -120)

Lance Lynn under 6.5 strikeouts

To say Lynn is in a rut would be an understatement. He's playing some of his worst ball of the season, giving up runs in bulk while striking out next to nobody.

Lynn's registered just nine strikeouts over his past five starts, good for an average of fewer than two per game.

Control has been a major problem for Lynn. He's thrown more called balls than strikes over the past month, which helps explain his shockingly low 5.7 K%.

Although the Tigers are fairly prone to strikeouts, six of the past 10 right-handed starters have failed to hit their line against Detroit. It's safe to say that very few of them, if any, entered play throwing balls at a higher rate than strikes over the previous month.

Good matchup or not, this line seems way too high for a guy whose profile is littered with red flags.

Odds: -105 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox