MLB Tuesday best bets: Jays to start strong in Oakland

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - MAY 27: Chris Bassitt #40 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field on May 27, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
David Berding / Getty Images Sport / Getty

All 30 teams are set to take the field Tuesday night, which means we have an abundance of bets to comb through.

Let's take a look at three of my favorites as we look to start the week in style.

Blue Jays (-190) @ Athletics (+160)

To say the Blue Jays have a massive pitching advantage in this game would be an understatement.

Taking the bump for the Jays will be Chris Bassitt, a reliable veteran coming off a sparkling eight-inning shutout against the Nationals.

He owns a .295 xwOBA over the last month and has allowed two runs or fewer in six of the past nine starts despite facing a difficult schedule, including the Diamondbacks, Padres, Dodgers, Orioles, Cubs, and Red Sox, among others, during that stretch.

Bassitt should excel against an Athletics team sporting a .233 batting average and 25% strikeout rate against righties over the past two weeks.

Even with all the injuries the Jays are dealing with, their offense is in line for more success against Ken Waldichuk.

Excluding pitches put in play, he's thrown nearly as many balls as strikes over the past month. He walks a lot of batters, has an above-average barrel rate, and grades out poorly in terms of homers allowed per at-bat.

Look for the Jays to give Bassitt a few runs of support early, which should be enough for them to lead through five.

Bet: Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-120)

Bryce Miller over 15.5 outs

Miller has gone over this total in 12 of 16 starts in which he threw at least 80 pitches. That seems to be the sweet spot for Miller, who's hit that mark in seven of his past eight games.

It's no coincidence Miller recorded 16 outs or more six times in that span, including against playoff-contending teams such as the Twins, Orioles, and Astros.

There's every reason to believe he'll eat his share of innings Tuesday night against the Reds. For one, Mariners starters have combined to last five innings or fewer in three straight games. The bullpen has carried a heavy workload, which the Mariners will no doubt be hoping to lessen with Miller on the mound.

The Reds also have a tendency to allow opposing starters to pitch deep into games. Of the last 13 non-openers Cincinnati has faced, 10 recorded 16 outs or more. Two pitchers finished at 15 and were beaten by the hook, while Shohei Ohtani was removed from the game after just an inning due to injury.

So, 11 of the last 13 starters who didn't suffer an injury managed to do the job, and both exceptions fell only one out short.

Look for Miller to complete more than five innings in this game.

Odds: +105 (playable to -130)

Kyle Freeland over 15.5 outs

Freeland has insane splits, which is not all that surprising given his home park is Coors Field.

He's averaged 16.9 outs per start on the road this season and has gone over the total in 75% of his games. That's a stark contrast from the 43% hit rate he's posted while playing at home.

Freeland enters this game playing some of his best ball of the season. He's registered at least 16 outs in four of the past five on the road, falling only one short against the high-powered Dodgers.

His control has also been very good of late no matter the building. Just 32% of his pitches the last month were balls, which is the third-lowest share among all of Tuesday's projected starters.

With Freeland hammering the strike zone and pitching in the more friendly confines of Arizona, I like his chances of giving the Rockies some length in this game.

Odds: -105 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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