We started the week on a losing note, going 1-2 with our best bets. Austin Gomber walked multiple batters against the Braves to give us a plus-money hit. Unfortunately, Tylor Megill survived six against the Rangers while the Padres didn't take the lead until the sixth inning.
We'll look to get back on track with three plays for a juicy Tuesday card.
Nationals (+180) @ Blue Jays (-210)
The Blue Jays have a knack for squandering golden opportunities but I think they'll take advantage of the one in front of them Tuesday night.
Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore, to put it lightly, has been struggling lately. He's conceded 17 total runs over his past five starts (26 innings) - and the underlying metrics are not pretty.
Gore throws strikes at a below-average rate, and we've seen an uptick in walks while opponents generate insanely good contact against him.
He owns a barrel rate of 14.9% over the last 30 days, miles above the league average of 7.4% in that time. His xwOBA of .363 is also sky-high, slotting him second last among Tuesday's projected starters.
He's benefited from a ton of luck - his BABIP of .194 over the last month is unsustainably low - and is still giving up a lot of runs. That should spell trouble for him against the Jays.
Toronto ranks in the top 10 in xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season and hasn't struck out very often. A lot of balls are in play, which should lead to success given Gore's struggles.
With José Berríos - who has conceded two or fewer runs in eight of 11 home starts - taking the bump against a pedestrian offense, the Blue Jays should be able to grind out an early lead.
Bet: Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-125)
Brayan Bello under 4.5 strikeouts
Bello is having a really solid sophomore season with the Red Sox. That hasn't translated into a lot of strikeouts, though. He's gone under this number in six of the past 10 games, including a date against these same Astros.
That's a common theme for pitchers going up against Houston. In fact, 12 of the past 13 opposing starters have gone under their strikeout line against the Astros. This includes quality pitchers like Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, Jesùs Luzardo, and Eduardo Rodríguez. It doesn't much matter who is on the mound, the Astros simply aren't striking out.
If we isolate right-handed arms - like Bello - then eight consecutive starters have gone under their strikeout line against Houston. I don't see Bello bucking that trend.
He has the third-lowest strike rate among Tuesday's starters over the last month. He's struggling to hit the zone consistently, which doesn't bode well for his chances against this stingy Astros lineup. Bello completed seven innings against the Astros last time out and still only managed four strikeouts. Expect another low K output tonight.
Odds: +100 (playable to -120)
Ken Waldichuk under 16.5 outs
Waldichuk is not exactly an innings eater. He's thrown 70+ pitches on 18 occasions this season and gone over 16.5 outs in just five of them. That's a 28% success rate.
He recently fell short against poor offensive teams like the White Sox and Nationals. It stands to reason that Waldichuk will be in trouble against a white-hot Mariners side that slots third in xwOBA in August.
That was certainly the case the last time Waldichuk squared off against the Mariners. He threw 77 pitches and made only eight outs when the two met back in May - and that was while the Mariners were struggling offensively.
It's a completely different story now. The Mariners are firing on all cylinders offensively, including against left-handed pitching. They're a top-five side in xwOBA versus lefties this month.
Look for Julio Rodríguez, Ty France, and Co. to chase Waldichuk from this game relatively early.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
