It's been another good week for our best bets. With the Dodgers game unfortunately voided on Wednesday night - they were in position to win the first five - we split the only two plays on the card, moving us to 6-3 on the week.
We'll look to close out on a high with three more plays for Friday night.
Cardinals (+120) @ Phillies (-140)
This has all the makings of a very high-scoring game.
The Phillies are feasting on right-handed pitching in August. They've posted a remarkable .359 xwOBA - second only to the Braves - and hit a league-leading 31 homers. They're getting on base and they're hitting for power.
Friday night presents the perfect storm for that to continue. The weather in Philadelphia is supposed to be hot and the wind is expected to blow outwards, helping balls carry a little more for a powerful Phillies team that needs no help.
Miles Mikolas is a very hittable pitcher who's been blown up by the likes of the Mets and Athletics of late, conceding 11 runs in his past two starts against them.
Backing him up is an underwhelming bullpen sporting a near 5.0 ERA since the beginning of June.
The Cardinals should contribute their share of runs to the total as well. Although Cristopher Sanchez has pitched well, he's certainly benefiting from a relatively easy string of opponents.
His past four starts, for example, came against the Nationals, Twins, Royals, and Pirates. He still conceded 10 earned runs - and four homers - during that time.
St. Louis is also a handful against left-handed pitching, ranking top eight in xwOBA since the beginning of July.
There should be real fireworks in this one.
Bet: Over 9.5 runs (-105)
Zach Eflin over 17.5 outs
Eflin has been Mr. Consistent this season. After going under his out total in three of four games to start the year, he's ratcheted things up and completed six innings or more in 15 of his past 20 starts. That's a 75% hit rate over several months.
There's nothing in the data to indicate a cooldown may be coming. Eflin is sporting a .235 xwOBA over the last month, which slots him first among Friday's projected starters in that time. Yes, even ahead of Spencer Strider.
His ground ball rate is high and his walk rate is low. Clearly, that's a recipe for success.
Eflin is in a great spot against a pedestrian Yankees offense. They've had a miserable time against righties this month, owning a .200 batting average (30th) and 26.5% K rate (5th highest) in August.
As a cherry on top, Thursday was a bullpen game for the Rays. They used nothing but relievers from start to finish, so they'll be looking to get as much distance out of Eflin as possible in this spot.
Expect him to go over the number once again.
Odds: -150 (playable to -165)
Cody Bellinger over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Bellinger is a HRR machine. He's hit the mark at least twice in five of the past six games, 23 of the past 30, and 64 of 96 on the season. His recent success isn't the byproduct of some unsustainable phase. He's consistently gotten the job done at an efficient clip all year long.
I like the chances of that continuing Friday night versus the Pirates. Bellinger will square off against Mitch Keller, who he profiles very well against.
Keller allows more power - as well as baserunners - against left-handed bats. Few are more potent than Bellinger, who's hitting a ridiculous .347 with 10 homers over his last 161 at-bats versus right-handed pitching.
He gets on base a ton and he hits for power. It's very possible he can take care of this over with one swing of the bat. If not, there's every reason to believe his teammates can bring him home if and when he gets on base.
The Cubs slot fourth in xwOBA - and third in homers - against right-handed pitching this month.
With Keller giving up runs in bulk of late and his underlying stats trending in the wrong direction, Bellinger and the Cubs should be able to make some noise.
Odds: -125 (playable to -140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
