We closed last week in style, going 2-1 on Friday to finish with a 8-2-1 record.
Let's waste no time getting to today's three best bets.
Braves (-165) @ Pirates (+140)
The Braves enter this contest on a three-game losing skid, but I think it's a great get-right spot for them.
Taking the mound for the Pirates is Mitch Keller, who has fallen off the face of the earth following a fantastic start to the campaign. He conceded 24 runs in his past four starts, pushing his season ERA to 4.35.
Given all the issues in his underlying numbers, I don't expect him to figure it out against Atlanta. Keller's strike rate is down, he's not inducing many swings and misses, and he's giving up an absurd amount of dangerous contact. He sports a .380 xwOBA over the past month, putting him in company with Luke Weaver and Kyle Freeland - not where you want to be.
What's especially concerning is that the opponents Keller faced in his last four starts aren't that impressive: The Angels are in a big rut, the Brewers have won four of 10 and sputtered offensively, the Guardians can't score at the best of times, and the Diamondbacks have won two of 10. Getting knocked around by those teams definitely raises red flags.
This Braves offense is loaded and as powerful as anybody. They routinely beat their opponents into the ground, with 19 of their past 20 wins coming by at least two runs.
I expect that trend to continue in a great bounce-back performance Tuesday night.
Bet: Braves -1.5 (+100)
Tanner Bibee over 5.5 strikeouts
The Blue Jays are winning a lot of games right now. They are also striking out a lot. Excluding two games in Boston in which the Red Sox used openers for an inning, opposing starters registered at least six strikeouts in four of the past five against Toronto.
Zooming out, only the Rockies, Pirates, and Athletics have struck out at a higher clip than the Blue Jays (26.1%) versus right-handed pitching the past 15 days.
That bodes well for Guardians starter Tanner Bibee, who's recorded at least six punchouts in six of the past eight games. His underlying numbers paint a very positive picture too.
Bibee leads all of the day's projected starters - including stars like Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler - in swinging-strike rate over the past month. He has also filled the zone, throwing balls only 33% of the time.
With the Blue Jays struggling in terms of plate discipline and Bibee generating a ton of swings and misses, this feels like a great spot for him to have another successful outing.
Odds: -130 (playable to -140)
Luke Weaver over 1.5 walks
Weaver is a walk machine right now. He issued at least two free passes in four of his past five starts for the Reds and averaged 2.2 over that span.
It's no coincidence: If we exclude pitches put in play and focus on called balls and strikes, a whopping 48.3% of his pitches the past month missed the mark.
Although the Marlins don't usually walk much, they have shown progress in that regard of late. Over the past two weeks, they have walked in 8.5% of their at-bats versus righties, which ranks in the top half of the league and sandwiches them between the Dodgers and Brewers.
With an improved lineup post-deadline and an advantageous matchup against a pitcher struggling to find the strike zone, I like Miami's chances of earning a couple of free passes.
Odds: -125 (playable to -135)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
