We had a disappointing split on Thursday's pint-sized card. The Angels and Tigers breezed past the over in Detroit, but Tanner Bibee gave up one run too many against the White Sox.
We'll look to get back in the win column and end the week on a high with three plays for Friday's full slate of games.
Mariners (-130) @ Diamondbacks (+110)
These two teams are on very different trajectories. The Mariners won six of the past 10, and their offense is heating up in a big way, having scored at least eight runs in three of the past five.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks dropped six of the past seven games and scored only three runs in their lone win.
I like the Mariners' chances of grabbing another win against a vulnerable Diamondbacks side in this game.
For one, Seattle's offense is more potent against lefties. It ranks sixth in batting average and top 10 in xwOBA since the beginning of June.
Tommy Henry is a very hittable lefty. He's thrown nearly as many balls as strikes over the past month, and it's starting to catch up to him. He walked four batters in two of the past three and has given up three earned runs in back-to-back starts.
The Mariners should be able to cause him problems, making it difficult for the Diamondbacks' offense to keep up against Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert allowed two runs or fewer in five of the past seven. Though he gave up five last time out, he always rebounds and has only allowed three or more in back-to-back games once this season.
I expect he'll right the ship against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks below teams like the Royals and Pirates in xwOBA versus righties this month.
Look for the Mariners to grind out another win as they try and chase down a Wild Card spot.
Bet: Mariners (-130)
Christian Javier under 5.5 strikeouts
We've targeted Javier's unders countless times in recent months, and he's given us no reason to stray.
Javier recorded five strikeouts or fewer in nine of the past 10 games, with a game against the Mike Trout-less Angels the lone exception. Javier has often fallen well short of the necessary six, averaging only 3.5 strikeouts per game during this stretch.
Even though his strikeouts are on a bit of an upswing - he has at least four strikeouts in three straight - his underlying profile remains very concerning. Excluding balls put in play, 48.2% of Javier's pitches during that span were balls. All included, the number still sits above 40%.
He's missing the strike zone a lot and not inducing many swings and misses. Not ideal for piling up the Ks.
Though the Rays are in a rut they can't seem to get out of, there's no denying the talent they have. With Javier's control issues, I think he's more likely to bring out the Rays' ceiling than vice versa.
Odds: +100 (playable to -120)
Zack Wheeler under 1.5 walks
All Wheeler does is throw strikes. He's walked multiple batters in just five of 20 starts this season, a 25% clip.
The numbers look even better if you zoom in a little. Wheeler has only handed out two or more free passes in two of the past 15 games.
He enters this game in fine form, having walked only one batter over the past four starts. Including balls in play, nearly 70% of his pitches in that span have been strikes.
There's no reason to expect different against the Pirates. They're hitting a league-worst .208 versus righties this month and aren't drawing many walks either.
At even money, I see a ton of value in backing Wheeler to go under once again.
Odds: +100 (playable to -135)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
