We concluded last week on a high, going 3-0 with our best bets to finish the week with a strong 10-5 record.
We'll look to pick up where we left off with three more plays for an enticing Monday night card.
Blue Jays (+100) @ Dodgers (-120)
The Dodgers have played in a ton of high-scoring affairs lately, with six consecutive games featuring at least 10 combined runs.
There's every reason to believe that trend will continue Monday against the Blue Jays.
Los Angeles possesses the hottest offense in the sport right now. Against right-handed pitchers, the Dodgers have managed a .391 xwOBA and 12.1% barrel rate while hitting a whopping 23 homers over the past three weeks. All of those marks are the best in the league.
Jose Berrios is a perfectly competent arm, but he's given up four runs or more in two of his past six starts (versus Boston and Miami). He's not immune to getting blown up, especially against such a great offensive team.
Luckily for the Blue Jays, they have an advantageous matchup against Michael Grove.
He owns a whopping 6.40 ERA through 52 innings, and we're not seeing many signs of improvement. Grove conceded four earned runs in five of his past eight starts, and his underlying numbers don't paint a great picture.
Grove's xwOBA sits at .340 over the past month, which is worse than all of Monday's projected starters except for Adam Wainwright.
Toronto is inconsistent at the dish, but the club has plenty of high-end talent in the lineup - more than enough to cause Grove problems.
With the league's hottest bats squaring off against an offense with a mouth-watering matchup - and hot weather conducive to the ball really carrying - both teams should contribute their fair share of runs in this game.
Look for the Dodgers' streak of playing in 10-plus-run games to continue.
Bet: Over 9.5 (+100)
Jose Berrios under 17.5 outs
Berrios has been a pretty consistent innings eater this season, completing at least six frames in 12 of 20 starts. That's a solid 60% hit rate.
The under for Berrios on Monday isn't so much about fading him as it's about backing the Dodgers.
As already mentioned, Los Angeles' offense is red-hot. The team's at or near the top of the league in almost every offensive category the past few weeks - including walk rate.
That means the Dodgers are being patient at the plate and not chasing bad pitches. Clubs like that tend to grind out at-bats and work pitch counts to the extreme, which lowers the ceiling for how long opposing starters can last.
We've seen that in the results lately. Only four of the past 20 starters the Dodgers faced lasted six innings or more.
Don't expect Berrios to buck that trend against an elite offense playing in good-hitting weather.
Odds: -130 (playable to -140)
Logan Allen under 2.5 earned runs
Allen is quietly having a very strong season for the Guardians. He owns a 3.21 ERA through nearly 70 innings and has consistently provided his team with quality starts.
The 24-year-old conceded three runs or more in only four of 13 starts thus far, meaning he's gone over this number just 31% of the time.
The four exceptions came against the Padres, Astros, Angels (with Mike Trout healthy) and White Sox. Save for Chicago, his off nights have only come against teams featuring plenty of star power. The Royals certainly don't classify as such.
Kansas City doesn't have many big names in its lineup, and the numbers reflect that. Since June 1, the Royals own a .292 OBP (league average is .313) and have hit only five homers against left-handed pitching. Five homers ... in 452 at-bats. Do the math on that one.
With an inability to go yard and produce runs in chunks, Allen would have to allow hits in bulk for the Royals to go over this number. I don't see that happening.
Look for Allen to allow two runs or less for the fourth straight game.
Odds: -135 (playable to -145)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
