We started the week on a good note Monday night, winning two of three best bets.
We'll look to replicate that effort - if not build on it - with a few more plays for Tuesday's MLB card. Let's get to it.
Padres (-120) @ Blue Jays (+100)
The Padres and Blue Jays enter this game on very different trajectories. The former sits fourth in the NL West with a 44-50 record and enters this contest on a three-game losing skid.
Meanwhile, the 53-41 Blue Jays are surging. They've won four in a row, eight of 10, and are slowly creeping their way back into a divisional race that effectively seemed over two weeks into the year.
Despite all that, the Padres are slightly favored in Toronto tonight. I think they're right to be - at least early on.
Taking the bump for the Padres is Joe Musgrove, one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.
Musgrove has conceded just six runs over his past five starts. He's hitting the strike zone at an insane clip, inducing a lot of swings and misses, and his xwOBA (.254) over the past month is better than that of Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, Tyler Glasnow, Zac Gallen, and Zack Wheeler. Yeah, he's pitched that well.
I think he's going to slow this Blue Jays offense down. While they deserve credit for improved outputs of late, only one of the last 13 starters they've gone up against has given up more than three runs (Alex Faedo).
A lot of the damage they're doing is coming against bullpen arms. Musgrove has completed at least five innings in all but one start and at least six innings in eight of nine contests, so the Jays will need to buck that trend against a red-hot arm if they're going to generate anything in the first half of the game.
With Musgrove likely to keep the Jays' attack in check, the Padres have a great chance of grinding out an early lead. Alek Manoah was good last time out, but the Tigers are the Tigers. One good showing against a weak opponent isn't enough for me to throw away half a season of horrendous data.
For all the Padres' faults, they sit top-five in xwOBA versus righties this month. They're right up there with teams like the Rangers and Dodgers.
I think they're going to cause Manoah some problems and earn Musgrove the support he needs to take a lead through the first half of the game. Back the Padres F5 moneyline with the safety of a push if things are tied.
Bet: Padres F5 -130
Joe Musgrove under 1.5 walks
Musgrove is a strike-throwing machine right now. Only 30% of his pitches over the past month were balls, the lowest output among the day's projected starters.
Unsurprisingly, his ability to throw strikes at such a high clip is leading to very few walks. Musgrove has walked only three batters over five starts the past month and posted a walk rate of just 2.5%.
Taking things a step further, Musgrove has only walked more than one batter once over the past 10 starts. He's walked exactly one batter on six occasions and avoided a free pass altogether three times.
Add it all up, and he's averaging just 0.9 walks conceded over his past 10 starts. Remarkable.
The Blue Jays are red-hot at the dish but rank in the top half of the league in swing rate this month. They're putting together a ton of hits and playing very aggressively, which can be counterintuitive to drawing walks.
Look for Musgrove to have another clean start and avoid getting into trouble by way of free pass.
Odds: -115 (playable to -130)
Bailey Ober over 15.5 outs
All Ober does is eat innings. He gobbles them up like a kid with Halloween candy. Ober has recorded an average of 17.7 outs per start and has gone over this number in 12 of 14 appearances this season, good for a whopping 86% hit rate.
Ober came one out shy in both defeats, which came in the middle of May. He has since done the job in seven straight starts - including against teams like the Orioles (twice), Rays, and Red Sox.
I expect Ober's success to continue Tuesday against the Mariners. Although they're playing pretty good baseball right now, their offensive numbers are still nothing to write home about.
They slot 17th in xwOBA versus right-handed pitchers this month and 29th in contact rate. Only the Angels - without Mike Trout - have fared worse in the latter category.
With the Mariners struggling to generate consistent contact and Ober in strong form (he owns a .260 xwOBA the past month), this line feels at least two outs too short.
Expect Ober to pitch his way into the fifth inning, if not through the game entirely.
Odds: -120 (playable to -140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
