MLB is back in full swing Friday as all 30 teams are set to return to action.
We put together a strong 3-0 night last Friday to head into the break on a high. Let's see if we can pick up where we left off with three plays for tonight's card.
Nationals (+160) @ Cardinals (-190)
This game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. First and foremost, the pitchers are ripe for the picking.
Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has been knocked around quite a bit of late. He conceded four runs or more in four of the past six games, and his underlying numbers are very concerning.
He owns a putrid swinging strike rate of 7.2% over the last month. Mikolas posted a very high .348 xwOBA in that time while allowing fly balls at the same frequency as grounders. Not good.
Although the Nationals aren't exactly a prolific offense - particularly against righties - the one thing they're good at is making contact and putting balls in play. That doesn't bode well for Mikolas, who's been a contact machine and allowed hits in bulk.
The Cardinals should feel good about their ability to keep up offensively. They rank just outside the top 10 in runs per game and can look forward to an advantageous matchup against Trevor Williams.
Williams allowed three runs or more in seven of his last nine starts and - like Mikolas - has a spotty underlying profile. His swinging strike rate sits below 8%, his .331 xwOBA is fairly high, and he's also giving up a lot of contact.
For all their faults, the Cardinals rank fifth in xwOBA against righties this month and have a few lethal bats in their lineup. They can exploit a struggling arm such as Williams.
I expect both teams to score a few runs and do their part to see this game over the number.
Bet: Over 8.5 -130 (playable to -140)
Tyler Glasnow over 7.5 strikeouts
Glasnow is on another level right now. He registered 31 strikeouts over his past three starts, a remarkable feat considering he didn't complete six innings in any of them.
He's throwing nothing but strikes and inducing a ton of swings and misses, owning the third-highest swinging strike rate over the past month.
Glasnow should maintain that volume Friday night against the Royals. They've struck out a whopping 28.5% of their at-bats versus righties the past couple of weeks.
When the Royals faced Glasnow in that period, they predictably fared poorly. Glasnow piled up a season-high 12 strikeouts in that game.
With Glasnow showing Spencer Strider-esque efficiency and the Royals laboring at the plate, the potential for a ceiling game is very real. Look for him to go over this number - perhaps comfortably so.
Odds: -130 (playable to -140)
Ross Stripling under 1.5 walks
There's a lot to like with Stripling's under given his history. He's gone under in eight of 12 starts (66%) and four in a row.
His numbers are trending in a positive direction. He's thrown balls only 32.4% of the time over the last month, ranking him behind only Logan Webb among Giants pitchers. He's consistently hitting the strike zone.
The nice little cherry on top that makes Stripling unique from most other starters is that he doesn't pitch very deep into games, throwing only 60 pitchers per start this season. That doesn't leave a lot of opportunity to walk batters, especially when throwing strikes at such a high clip.
With a fresh and fully available bullpen behind Stripling, there's no reason to expect a longer leash this time out.
Don't expect many walks versus the Pirates.
Odds: -140 (playable to -155)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
