Although the NL MVP is all but officially decided - Ronald Acuna Jr. is rightfully seen as a significant favorite - the Cy Young race remains wide-open.
There are three aces neck and neck for top spot with a handful of quality arms still within striking distance.
Let's take a closer look at how things are shaping up.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | +185 |
| Clayton Kershaw | +325 |
| Spencer Strider | +325 |
| Blake Snell | +1000 |
| Logan Webb | +1200 |
| Marcus Stroman | +1500 |
| Jesus Luzardo | +1600 |
| Justin Steele | +1600 |
| Zack Wheeler | +1800 |
| Mitch Keller | +2000 |
| Merrill Kelly | +4000 |
| Aaron Nola | +6000 |
| Max Scherzer | +6000 |
| Corbin Burnes | +6000 |
| Joe Musgrove | +7500 |
Only pitchers with odds 75:1 or shorter are listed
Zac Gallen has been one of the most consistent players for the Diamondbacks, who are giving the Dodgers a run for their money in the NL West. He has been touched up a couple of times of late but has more than made up for it by conceding one run or fewer in four of his past six games. Gallen's ERA (3.04) is strong, and his FIP (2.77) is even better, firmly cementing him in the top class of MLB.
Gallen also owns a 4.9% walk rate - one of the lowest in the league - and an OPS against of .612, good for seventh among all starters. His numbers are strong across the board, and there are no signs of regression coming his way.
Clayton Kershaw and Spencer Strider find themselves in a dead heat behind Gallen. Kershaw has turned back the clock, performing at the highest level we've seen since 2016 or 2017. He's tied for fifth in strike percentage, top 10 in swinging strike rate, and inducing grounders nearly 50% of the time. His ability to paint the zone and keep the ball on the ground have made it awfully difficult for batters to do anything against him.
We have seen a different but equally dominant approach from Strider. He throws nothing but strikes and banks on overpowering his opponents, which is not a bad recipe given his talent. Strider leads the league in strike rate by more than 2.5% and is 4.2% clear of Shane McClanahan for the league lead in swinging strikes. He misses bats better than anyone.
A tendency to give up the long ball could be the Achilles' heel for Strider's Cy Young hopes, although he's seemingly made progress in that area. He has allowed allowed just one homer - and four runs - over his past four starts despite facing teams like the Rays and Phillies.
Padres pitchers Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove are two hard-charging arms who could make things interesting.
Snell doesn't yet have the record to gain serious traction, but he owns an impressive 2.85 ERA and has been downright dominant for quite some time. He ranks second in xwOBA over the past two months and has struck out a league-leading 39.9% of batters faced. Numbers like that won't remain unnoticed.
Musgrove is obviously a long shot, but he's not getting nearly enough credit. He has conceded two runs or fewer in eight of his past nine and ranks first - yes, first - among all starters with a .246 xwOBA over the past two months.
With an 8-2 record, an ERA that's dropping significantly by the game, and a spotless underlying profile, Musgrove can really turn some heads down the stretch.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
