The 2023 MLB campaign is flying by. It feels like yesterday I was writing preview content for major awards like the MVP - Ronald Acuna Jr. was my NL headliner - and here we are, more than 55% through the season.
Several players are already distancing themselves with regards to individual trophies, but the Cy Young Award is an exception. The race remains wide-open in both leagues, with a handful of legitimate candidates in each.
Let's take a closer look at how the race is shaping up in the AL.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | +200 |
| Kevin Gausman | +325 |
| Gerrit Cole | +400 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | +800 |
| Shane McClanahan | +800 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +1000 |
| Luis Castillo | +2500 |
| Joe Ryan | +4000 |
| Sonny Gray | +5000 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | +7500 |
| George Kirby | +7500 |
| Jon Gray | +7500 |
| Pablo Lopez | +7500 |
(Note: Only players 75-1 or shorter are listed)
Valdez is the ever-so-slight favorite, carrying implied odds of 33.3% to win the Cy Young. He has been a model of consistency for the surging Houston Astros, owning a 2.51 ERA and 2.82 FIP to date. Valdez has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his past 11 starts and completed at least six innings in nine of them.
He belongs firmly in the Cy Young discussion, but I'm not sure he'll hold up as the favorite. Valdez doesn't have gaudy strikeout numbers and his record (7-6 on decisions) could hurt him at voting time if it doesn't improve.
Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman is right behind Valdez in the pecking order. His ERA is a little higher, but he grades out better in terms of FIP, has recorded significantly more strikeouts, and is pitching as well as anybody right now. He conceded two runs or fewer in 10 of his past 12 games and held opponents to a maximum of one run in half of those games.
If he was getting a little more run support, we would be talking about a 10-plus-win pitcher already. For perspective, Gausman has allowed two runs or fewer three games in a row; the Jays lost all three games and he was credited with the loss in two of them. I think he'll make a healthy charge down the stretch.
Rounding out the top group is Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who has never claimed a Cy Young. Despite a poor month of May, Cole owns an 8-2 record, a 2.85 ERA, and the highest WAR (3.8) of any AL starting pitcher. He hasn't conceded more than three runs in a start since May and has done a great job of limiting homers, allowing just three over his past 43 innings of work.
Surprisingly, Nathan Eovaldi might be the class of the next three-pitcher tier. He doesn't offer the strikeout prowess of Shohei Ohtani or Shane McClanahan. However, he has a lower ERA than Cole and a higher WAR than Gausman, and he's been a model of consistency for a powerhouse Rangers team.
Sonny Gray stands out as the best of the rest. He's not the flashiest - especially relative to rotation mates Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez - and a 4-3 record won't get people excited. His numbers are so good, though: Gray is sporting a sub-3.0 ERA and a sky-high ground-ball rate of 50%, and he's only allowed three homers in 100 innings of work. Three!
If Gray can grab some more wins on a Twins team that has a real chance of claiming the division title in a weak AL Central, he could get into the mix.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
