We have reached the unofficial midway point of the MLB season, which means it's time for All-Star week.
The festivities begin Monday at 8 p.m. ET, as eight of the league's top power hitters square off in what should be a very exciting and competitive home run derby.
Let's take a closer look at the outright market and a couple of players worth backing to make some noise.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | +300 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +350 |
| Julio Rodriguez | +450 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | +500 |
| Adolis Garcia | +800 |
| Randy Arozarena | +800 |
| Mookie Betts | +900 |
| Adley Rutschman | +1600 |
Adolis Garcia (+800)
Garcia enters All-Star weekend tied for sixth in the majors in home runs and hits with a ton of force. He ranks 16th in max exit velocity, 24th in average exit velocity, and 10th in barrels per plate appearance. No one in this year's derby grades higher than Garcia in the latter.
It's obviously much easier for all the hitters to make Grade A contact against soft lobs, but Garcia's absurd power should ensure there's plenty of lift on the ball, and he can squeak out extra homers when fatigue sets in.
I expect Garcia to take his first-round matchup against Randy Arozarena and, at +800, carry the highest potential payout of anybody to make the final four.
Luis Robert Jr. to beat Adley Rutschman (-230)
Laying -230 in a skills competition seems crazy on the surface, but I believe this price is short. Robert is in a completely different league than Rutschman when it comes to power and cranking out home runs.
Robert is tied for third in homers this season and is in sole possession of third in terms of expected homers. He carries elite power and enters the break as one of the league's hottest hitters.
Rutschman doesn't hold a candle to Robert when it comes to power numbers. He has hit 10.6 expected homers this year, slotting him 97th in MLB. That is 94 spots below Robert, by far the biggest gap in any of the four first-round matchups.
Taking things a step further, Robert is tied for 20th in barrels per at-bat, while Rutschman slots 175th. He doesn't crack the top 200 when it comes to average exit velocity.
Although Rutschman is a fantastic player and does carry some power, this appears to be quite a mismatch. Look for Robert to win rather convincingly.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
