We started the week on a strong note Tuesday night, cashing two of three best bets for a profitable night on the diamond.
We'll look to build on that with three more plays for Wednesday's card.
Blue Jays (-120) @ White Sox (+100)
The series opener was rather low scoring, with the two sides combining for just seven runs. I'm expecting more in Game 2.
The Blue Jays will have the luxury of facing Lance Lynn, who's in the midst of a miserable season. He owns a 6.47 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and is getting hit hard.
Among the day's projected starters, only Chase Anderson has allowed more home runs per plate appearance this season. There's a reason for that.
Lynn is allowing a barrel rate of 11% - which is quite high - and it's trending even further in the wrong direction. Focusing only on the past month of starts, Lynn's barrel rate sits at a whopping 15.2%.
The Blue Jays' offense is inconsistent at the best of times, but with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Matt Chapman, it definitely has enough power to exploit Lynn.
On the flip side of things, the White Sox offense has been surprisingly good of late. It sits sixth - yes, sixth! - in xwOBA versus righties over the past couple of weeks. Chicago ranks eighth in barrel rate, ninth in homers, and also snuck into the top 10 in OBP. All positive signs.
Although Jose Berrios hasn't pitched poorly, per se, there are some red flags in his profile of late. The barrel rate is in double digits, his xwOBA is a little high, and he's conceded at least four runs in two of his past three starts.
I'm not suggesting this will be a back-and-forth slugfest, but I see value in backing the over.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-140)
Graham Ashcraft under 17.5 total outs
Ashcraft has been an under machine for quite some time. He's recorded 17 outs or fewer in eight of the past nine appearances, with the last game against the Padres being the lone exception.
Perhaps the biggest problem for Ashcraft is an inability to throw strikes consistently. Just 44.9% of his pitches the past month were strikes, which is one of the lowest rates among the day's projected starters.
When Ashcraft is hitting the plate, opposing batters are finding a lot of success. He's posted a barrel rate of 13% (very high) and allowed an xwOBA of more than .400 the past 30 days.
While the Nationals aren't a strong offensive team, they are pesky. They very rarely strike out and are extremely good at making contact. In fact, no team in the league has a higher contact rate versus righties the past three weeks (79.5%).
I think their ability to fight pitches off, drag out at-bats, and make good contact - something Ashcraft has struggled to limit - will help chase him from this game before completing six innings.
Odds: -115 (playable to -125)
Pablo Lopez over 7.5 strikeouts
Lopez is heating up following a rough patch in early June. He's recorded nine strikeouts or more in three of his past four games, including against a Red Sox team that's been one of the league's best at avoiding strikeouts.
Lopez finds himself in an extremely advantageous matchup Wednesday night versus the Royals. Whether you zero in on the past three weeks or focus on the season as a whole, Kansas City has the worst strikeout rate.
Over the past week alone, the Royals have struck out eight times or more against Joe Ryan, Shane Bieber, and Tyler Glasnow. If we look back a little further, Zach Eflin, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, and Reese Olson all soared past their totals, recording seven Ks or more.
The Royals swing a lot, miss a lot, and don't have the talent to do much, even when the ball is put in play. They're a team that's easy to pitch deep into the game against, which leaves extra opportunity to pile up the strikeouts.
Look for Lopez to have another big night.
Odds: -115 (playable to -130)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
