It was another good night on the diamond, as two of our three best bets came through. The lone exception was an under on Joey Wentz, who managed to record more than 4.5 strikeouts despite allowing six runs and being chased by the Rangers in fewer than five innings.
Profit is profit, though, so we'll take it and move on to an enticing slate of games Thursday night.
Astros (-110) @ Cardinals (-110)
After a quiet series opener, the Astros and Cardinals broke out offensively in a big way on Wednesday night. Each team plated at least seven runs in a back-and-forth affair that soared over the total of 8.5.
I'm not sure I expect the same heights to be reached in this game - 17 runs is a lot to ask - but there's value in backing the over once again.
The pitching matchup of J.P. France versus Adam Wainwright is ripe for the picking.
France has really struggled to hit the plate, throwing strikes at a putrid 37.9% clip over the past month. That's the lowest rate in the league among the day's projected starters.
Cristian Javier has struggled with the same issue of late, which is one of the reasons I believed the Cardinals would get to him last time out.
Their offense possesses a lot of power - even if Nolan Arenado (day-to-day) is unable to play - and can cause real problems when they get ahead in counts, which forces opposing pitchers to come right at them. I expect more of the same against France.
On the flip side, Wainwright is long past his best-before date. He's been knocked around all season, owning a 6.54 ERA to date and allowing seven hits or more in six consecutive starts.
He, too, has struggled to hit the strike zone. Wainwright's strike rate sits at only 39.7% the past 30 days, worse than all but France among those starting today.
With Wainwright lacking control and the ability to overpower opposing bats, quality starts come few and far between for him these days.
Look for the Astros - who rank fourth in xwOBA against righties the past couple of weeks - to contribute their fair share of runs in another high-scoring affair.
Bet: Over 9.5 (-115, playable to -125)
Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases
Harper has a very enticing matchup today against a pitcher he profiles extremely well against in Kyle Hendricks.
It's not that Hendricks is pitching poorly for the Cubs - he's allowed two runs or fewer in three straight - but rather how he pitches. Hendricks doesn't possess high-end stuff, instead trying to get the job done by pitching to contact and inducing as many grounders as possible.
I'm not sure that's going to work against Harper. He's crushed pitchers with a stuff rating below 80 (Hendricks sits at 59 over the past month), owning a .288 batting average, a .396 on-base percentage, a .472 xwOBA, and a contact rate of 84%.
You generally need electric pitches to keep a bat like Harper from making noise, and Hendricks simply isn't that guy.
Although Harper has only two hits over his past six games, all the underlying numbers remain strong. He's going to breakout sooner rather than later - and Hendricks is the kind of pitcher he tends to excel against.
He should make noise in this game.
Odds: -110 (playable to -120)
Adam Wainwright under 16.5 outs (+115)
Wainwright is a target every time he takes the mound. He allows a ton of hits and runs and doesn't have the same kind of gas tank he used to. Wainwright has averaged only 82.5 pitches per start this season, a low number for a regular arm in a rotation.
Part of the reason Wainwright's average pitch count is so low is that he consistently struggles, forcing the Cardinals to pull him from games before the later innings.
At any rate, he's averaged only 15.6 outs per game and gone under the number more times than not.
With the Astros sitting fourth in xwOBA versus righties the past couple of weeks and eighth in contact rate, there's every reason to believe they'll make noise against Wainwright. It should be another short start for the veteran.
Odds: +115 (playable to -110)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
