Thursday was a great one on the diamond as we swept the board. The Padres picked up a sweat-free win over the Giants while Yandy Diaz and Ronald Acuna Jr. both scored runs at near-even money prices to give us a fruitful 3-0 night.
We'll look to replicate it with three more plays for Friday's slate of games.
Mets (+100) @ Phillies (-120)
The Mets have been a disaster for much of the season - especially relative to expectations - but value is value, and I see it on them today.
Taijaun Walker is a pitcher against whom the Mets should be able to produce offense. His ERA (2.05) is far below his SIERA (4.53) over the past month, suggesting he has pitched a lot worse than the counting numbers show.
There are plenty of other red flags beneath the surface as well. Of the 24 projected starters to have made multiple appearances over the last 30 days, Walker owns the third-lowest strike percentage (42.3). J.P. France and Patrick Corbin are the only two who have found the plate less frequently.
He isn't throwing many strikes, doesn't have electric stuff by any stretch of the imagination, and is facing an offense that is heating up.
As bad as the Mets have looked at times this season, they have the firepower to hit - and they are starting to do just that. The Mets rank fifth in xwOBA against righties over the last couple of weeks and near the top of the league in homers.
They have one of the lowest swing percentages in the league during that time. They're not chasing pitches outside of the zone. They're patiently waiting for pitches they can hit and making the most of them.
Kodai Senga has been somewhat up and down this season, but his profile looks better than Walker.
The Mets also rank ahead of the Phillies in OBP, slugging, homers, xwOBA, and contact percentage over the past couple of weeks.
With a higher-ceiling starter, and an edge at the plate, I like the Mets to take care of business Friday night.
Bet: Mets +100 (playable to -115)
Shane Bieber under 5.5 strikeouts
Bieber was a strikeout machine early in his career. But that is far from the case now. Although he is still an effective pitcher, Bieber does not miss many bats or put hitters away via strikeout.
He has registered six strikeouts or more only three times through 15 starts this season. That's good for a hit rate of just 20%.
Bieber hasn't even come close on many occasions, recording four or fewer in 11 of his 15 appearances. The exceptions came against the Athletics, White Sox, and a banged-up Astros team.
The Brewers are a mediocre offensive team and strike out a lot. That being said, Bieber owns one of the lowest strike percentages among the day's projected starters and - using the same criteria (today's starters) - only Chris Bassitt and Logan Gilbert have higher balls in play percentages over the past month.
Bieber pitches to contact, which should allow the Brewers to limit the amount of strikeouts.
Odds: +105 (playable to -120)
Patrick Sandoval over 4.5 strikeouts
The stars are aligning for a ceiling game for Sandoval. He has induced swinging strikes 13.2% of the time over the last month, which slots him third - below only Jesus Luzardo and Senga - among those expected to take the bump today.
He is missing a lot of bats and has a mouthwatering matchup against the Colorado Rockies. They rank dead last in xwOBA and strikeout rate against lefties over the past month, being sat down just under 30% of the time.
They are swinging at more than 50% of the pitches they're seeing and making contact only 69% of the time, a bottom-five rate.
Left-handed pitchers Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, James Paxton and Blake Snell combined to record 35 strikeouts over their last four starts against the Rockies.
With the way Sandoval's strike numbers are trending, there's no reason he can't pile up the Ks in Colorado.
Odds: -141 (playable to -150)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
