Tuesday was not our day on the diamond. The Padres blew a multi-run lead and lost in walk-off fashion while neither of our pitcher props came through.
We'll look to rebound strong with three plays for Wednesday's slate.
Mariners (-165) @ Yankees (+140)
The Mariners are struggling at the plate right now. They have scored just 13 runs over the past five games (2.6 per) and rank dead last in June in xwOBA versus right-handed pitchers. Scoring is an issue.
Luckily, they shouldn't need to do much of it with Luis Castillo on the mound. He is in top-tier form, sporting a .258 xwOBA over the past 30 days while striking out batters at nearly a 33% clip. Incredible numbers.
The Yankees are no doubt going to have an awfully difficult time handling his stuff. Aaron Judge is sidelined and Giancarlo Stanton is in a miserable rut. The Yankees' offense is really laboring as a result.
They own a .299 xwOBA against righties this month, which is near the bottom of the league and not all that far ahead of the Mariners.
The difference Wednesday comes on the mound. The struggling Yankees have to deal with Castillo while the Mariners get to square off against Jhony Brito. That's a much easier task.
Brito owns a 5.58 ERA this season and was only just recalled after being demoted about a month ago.
Control is an issue for Brito, and the Mariners, who have actually generated walks at a healthy clip of late, stand to benefit greatly. They should be able to grind out some free passes, which would really aid their offense.
Look for the Mariners to convert their big pitching edge into a lead through five innings.
Bet: Mariners F5 -0.5, -115 (playable to -120)
Garrett Whitlock over 5.5 strikeouts
Whitlock is heating up. He has amassed 18 strikeouts over his past three starts, and his underlying profile suggests the K surge is very much deserved. Whitlock is throwing strikes at a 52.8% clip over the last 30 days, which is the highest clip among any of the day's projected starters.
His swinging-strike rate of nearly 15% is strong as well, slotting him in just below Aaron Nola and Castillo.
Everything is pointing upward for Whitlock, who now finds himself in a mouthwatering matchup against the Twins.
They rank dead last with an absurd 29.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers in June. Nobody else is on the wrong side of 28%.
The Twins don't hit for average nor generate many walks. They're free-swingers and Whitlock has the stuff to induce a lot of misses.
Mediocre pitchers like Joey Wentz (nine), Matthew Boyd (eight), and Trevor Richards (seven) recently soared past their strikeout lines against these Twins. Whitlock has the talent and positive trajectory to do the same.
Odds: -125 (playable to -135)
Ronald Acuna Jr. over 0.5 runs scored
Nola is a very good pitcher in very good form - but I'm not sure it matters. Acuna Jr. is on a different planet from almost everybody in the league when it comes to getting on base and making his way home.
He owns a ridiculous .398 on-base percentage against right-handed pitchers this season, far and away the best output on the Braves.
He has enjoyed a ton of success against Nola in the past, too, sporting a .350 average over 47 at-bats.
No matter the opponent, Acuna lives on the bases and is a nightmare to deal with once he gets on. Only Esteury Ruiz has stolen more bases this season.
Given his ability to get on base, his speed, and all the talent around him, it should be no surprise Acuna has scored in 43 of 73 games this season.
Look for him to find home plate again in this one.
Odds: +100 (playable to -125)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
