Monday's best bets have us off to a disappointing start to the week. The Nationals and Cardinals combined to clear the first-half over by six runs in the opening play of the day. Unfortunately, neither player prop came through and left us with a 1-2 record.
We'll aim to get back in the win column with three bets for Tuesday's plentiful card.
Padres (-120) @ Giants (+100)
The Padres made a mess of a great effort from Michael Wacha on Monday, allowing seven unanswered and seeing a 4-0 lead turn into a 7-4 defeat in extra innings.
I like their chances of a quick rebound Tuesday night in San Fransisco. A lot of it comes down to Anthony DeSclafani, whom the Padres have a very good chance of getting to.
There are a lot of red flags in DeSclafani's pitching profile of late. Over the last month, he has a worse xwOBA allowed than the likes of Yusei Kikuchi and Michael Lorenzen.
In that time, he has also given up a higher OPS than all but Kyle Freeland among Tuesday's projected starters. Not good.
DeSclafani isn't a high strikeout pitcher with nasty stuff, either. He's averaging fewer than four Ks per game over his last 10 starts.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and even cagey veterans like Matt Carpenter could cause DeSclafani real problems.
The expectation is that Seth Lugo will take the bump and be tasked with slowing the Giants' potent offense down. He induces a lot of ground balls, limits homers, and has conceded two runs or fewer in five of eight starts this year.
He's not a high-end pitcher by any means, but he should be able to limit the Giants' power, which would go a long way toward getting back in the win column.
Bet: Padres (-120)
Reid Detmers under 16.5 outs (+100)
Detmers is a talented young arm, but he hasn't become efficient enough to pitch deep into games. Detmers has averaged 15.6 outs this season and gone under the number in seven of 12 starts, including against strong lefty-hitting sides like the Rangers, Astros, and Mariners.
On Tuesday he will face off against arguably the best of the bunch in the Dodgers. They lead the majors in OBP, SLG%, OPS, xwOBA, barrel rate, and home runs versus left-handed pitchers over the past month. They have absolutely destroyed southpaws.
Los Angeles, as a whole, is in a bit of a rut right now, but there's no denying the talent it possesses. A date with Detmers could help the team get back on track.
I'm expecting the Dodgers' offense to come to life in this spot - you can only keep them down for so long - and chase Detmers before he flirts with completing six innings.
Kyle Bradish under 5.5 strikeouts (-135)
Bradish is enjoying a solid season with the Orioles. He owns a respectable 3.90 ERA and has given the team a chance pretty much every time out, allowing more than three runs only once since the beginning of May.
While Bradish has limited runs and eaten innings on a pretty consistent basis, he has really struggled striking batters out.
Bradish has registered five strikeouts or fewer in nine of 12 starts this season, good for a 75% success rate.
I don't see the Rays falling into the 25%. Although they have cooled off a little of late, they're at or near the top of the league in every offensive category versus righties. They also don't strikeout all that often.
Look for them to grind out at-bats, work the pitch count, and consistently put the ball in play against Bradish, who owns a low swinging-strike percentage of just 9.6% over the past month.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
