We finished last week on a high note, going 2-1 on Friday to push our record to 19-8 in the past two weeks.
Let's dig into three Monday evening plays that stand out as we look to pick up where we left off.
Cardinals (-150) @ Nationals (+130)
The pitching matchup of Josiah Gray versus Jack Flaherty is worse than it appears on the surface. I believe there is real potential for fireworks here.
We'll start with Gray. He owns a FIP of nearly 6.0 over the past 30 days. He has posted a xwOBA worse than all but two of Monday's starters - Austin Gomber and Brandon Williamson - and thrown balls at the second-highest clip.
His control has not been great and his walk rates have risen accordingly. Not to mention he's been hit around pretty good.
The Cardinals, for all their faults, still possess a scary amount of power. They've hit more homers against right-handed pitching than all but the Braves and Angels in June. I expect them to use favorable counts to their advantage and hit Gray for real power.
This is a good spot for the Nationals' offense as well. Flaherty is having serious control issues right now - just under 42% of his pitches over the past month have been balls. Flaherty is the only projected starter who has fared worse than Gray in that category.
The Nationals are really struggling offensively of late, but a date with someone who can't hit the strike zone just might be what's needed to get back on track.
With both arms throwing balls in bulk, we should see quite a few free passes handed out. That means a couple of timely hits - or perhaps even long balls - should lead to a lot of early offense. Back the first half over.
Bet: F5 over 5 (-125)
Austin Gomber under 4.5 strikeouts (-140)
Gomber is in truly miserable form right now. He owns an 8.46 ERA over the past month, which closely aligns with a dreadful 7.35 FIP. Both rank him dead last among Friday's projected starting pitchers.
Gomber has given up a ton of hits and runs and struggled to last in games. Even when able to grind his way through innings, the strikeouts simply haven't been there.
He has recorded four strikeouts or fewer in 11 of 14 starts this season. Even if his line sat at 3.5, he still would've come up short more often than not.
I'm expecting more of the same from Gomber versus the Reds. Of all of Friday's starters, Gomber ranks dead last in swinging strike rate the past 30 days.
He's really struggling to miss bats and I don't see that changing against a scorching-hot Reds team that has been more disciplined of late. Only seven sides have been struck out less frequently over the past couple of weeks.
Matt McLain over 0.5 runs (+100)
I love, love, love McLain in this spot. He's been an on-base machine since joining the lineup in May, especially on home soil. McLain owns a sparkling .391 OBP in Cincinnati and has hit for average (.321) and power (.249 ISO, 47% hard-hit rate).
McLain has also teed off against lefties. Whatever numbers you may be imagining, I promise they're better. McLain owns an xwOBA of nearly .400 and ranks ahead of lefty crushers like Yordan Alvarez, Nolan Arenado, Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani, and Christian Walker. Yeah.
In short, McLain kills left-handed pitching, is going up against one of the worst arms in the league, and will hit near the top of the lineup at the extremely hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, where he has enjoyed great success.
McLain should live on the basepaths on Friday night, allowing plenty of opportunities for his red-hot teammates to knock him home.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
