MLB Monday best bets: Astros to hang around early

We have a fun eight-game card to look forward to Monday night, headlined by a contest featuring a pair of teams in a rather heated wild-card race - it's early, I know.

Let's take a closer look at a few of the best ways to attack the slate.

Astros (+100) @ Blue Jays (-120)

Be it backing the opposing team - or targeting unders on prop lines - we have targeted Alek Manoah time and time again this season. With his game still in a bad place, we're returning to the well to start the week.

Manoah conceded only two runs last time out, but it was far from a quality start. He walked three batters and struck out two over four innings and was highly inefficient, throwing 89 pitches before exiting.

That did little to improve his numbers, with his ERA sitting at 5.46 for the season and still going south.

Manoah owns a 6.75 ERA and 7.69 FIP over the past month. For as poorly as he grades out in conceding runs, the underlying numbers suggest he's a little lucky the results haven't been worse.

The Astros aren't a team you want to run into while struggling on the mound. They rank sixth in wRC+ and third in ISO against right-handed pitchers over the last couple of weeks. They've looked like the contenders they were expected to be prior to the season.

While Jose Altuve dealing with an injury isn't ideal, the Astros still have enough firepower in the lineup to do damage, especially against a struggling arm like Manoah.

Brandon Bielak should have his hands full with the Blue Jays, as they lead the league in wOBA versus righties over the last two weeks. But I think Houston's bats can get him the support he'll need.

I also love the price of this line. Manoah routinely leaves the game with the Blue Jays in an underwhelming spot, even on nights they're hitting well.

If both offenses cancel each other out and the contest is tied through five innings, we still have a winning ticket in our pocket. I love that insurance.

Bet: Astros F5 +0.5 (-135)

Adam Wainwright under 17.5 outs (-125)

Wainwright is a shell of the pitcher he once was. He can't strike out anybody (he has a 12% K rate), doesn't induce much soft contact, and gives up a lot of hits. Wainwright has conceded 37 hits through just five starts, which is an alarming number. It's even more concerning when you consider he hasn't lasted long in games.

That brings me to my next point: Wainwright hasn't completed six innings this season. He has gone under the number in every start. That's no small feat since he's faced porous offenses like the Reds, Royals, and Tigers.

Wainwright is tasked Monday night with slowing down one of the league's truly elite lineups. The Rangers rank first in batting average, second in wOBA, and fifth in ISO against right-handed pitching. They're a miserable team to deal with, and I expect Wainwright to struggle mightily.

Look for Wainwright to fail to complete six innings for the sixth straight start.

Martin Perez under 17.5 outs (-115)

That's right, we're double dipping with unders on both starters. Perez doesn't sport the same hit rate as Wainwright, but it's still pretty good. He's made 11 starts this season, managing to go over the number only four times.

As a whole, Perez has pitched quite poorly this campaign, and his numbers are trending even further downward. He's sporting a 6.91 ERA and 6.14 FIP over the past 30 days.

I don't expect him to right the ship against the Cardinals. For all their faults, they hit lefties pretty well. St. Louis ranks 11th in wOBA and ISO, and the club is generating hard contact at a higher rate than all but the Dodgers and Rangers.

The Cardinals should be able to knock Perez all around the park and chase him before he completes a full six innings.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.