We have a busy night of baseball with 11 games scheduled for Monday night.
Let's dive into a few plays that stand out from the pack.
Rockies (+150) @ Pirates (-175)
The Pirates are getting an ugly taste of regression, having dropped seven consecutive games as their actual record (20-15) closely aligns itself with their Pythagorean expectation (19-16).
Pittsburgh is still an above-average team but clearly not as good as its early-season success suggested, especially without Oneil Cruz in the mix.
The Pirates have a great opportunity to get back on track against the Rockies on Monday. Taking the bump for Colorado will be Kyle Freeland, who has not pitched nearly as well as his counting numbers suggest. He owns a 5.0 FIP and is allowing a lot of hard contact.
The Pirates have feasted on left-handed pitching this season, posting a .345 wOBA (sixth highest) against lefties. They should be chomping at the bit for an opportunity to take on an overachieving arm in Freeland.
Pittsburgh should feel especially good about its chances with Mitch Keller on the mound. He's been lights out this season, grading well above average in K rate, ERA, FIP, and pretty much any other notable pitching metric.
He should have no problem putting together a quality start against the rather toothless Rockies. They have a sub-.300 wOBA and .124 ISO against righties on the road this season; they're not getting on base or generating power.
Look for the Pirates to stake an early lead and see it through the first half of the game.
Bet: Pirates F5 -0.5 (-115)
Jon Gray under 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
Jon Gray has made six starts this season for the Rangers. He has struck out an average of 3.2 batters per game and failed to go over this number in all but one start, which happened to be his season debut.
Forget six strikeouts: Gray has not registered more than two in a game since April 9. He is really struggling.
Gray is averaging just over five strikeouts per nine innings. Even if his efficiency spikes against a Mariners team that has struggled with discipline, he will need to work deep into the game to get the job done.
I'm not sure that's realistic given what we've seen from him this year. Of Monday's projected starting pitchers, Gray ranks last in FIP (6.22). He is routinely being taken yard and he is almost as likely to walk a batter as strike one out.
The Mariners' offense has been very inconsistent, but it's fifth in fly-ball rate over the last couple weeks and has hit for solid power. I think Seattle can score a few runs and chase Gray before he has enough time to pile up the strikeouts.
Christian Walker over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Walker is one of the best hitters in the game against left-handed pitchers. He owns a .405 wOBA and .378 ISO, and he's putting the ball in the air nearly 50% of the time. Those are absurd numbers.
This success isn't just small-sample smoke and mirrors. A year ago, Walker posted a .355 wOBA, .237 ISO, and 41% fly-ball rate over the course of an entire season for the Diamondbacks. Those numbers obviously aren't as good as what he has managed this year, but they are still very high.
This evening, Walker has the opportunity to square off against a struggling lefty in Braxton Garrett. The Marlins pitcher is inducing soft contact just over 10% of the time (a very poor rate) and ranks bottom five among the day's starters in homers allowed per nine innings.
There should be real opportunity for Walker to get the job done with one good swing of the bat.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
