We have a jam-packed day of baseball ahead of us with all 30 teams set to take the field. Let's waste no time in getting to our best bets.
Braves (+110) @ Marlins (-130)
The Braves have hit a little bit of a rut. They own a 5-5 record over the past 10 games and are dealing with a few key injuries.
Although it doesn't appear serious, superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. left the second leg of Monday's doubleheader against the Mets with an apparent injury. One would think the Braves will proceed with caution and keep him out of the lineup against Miami, at the very least in the series opener.
That would take a huge bite out of a lineup that's already missing Travis d'Arnaud (.333 over eight games) and Orlando Arcia (.400 OBP through 13 contests).
You don't want to be missing key weaponry against Sandy Alcantara. His surface numbers haven't been up to his usual standards, but his FIP, ground-ball rate, and hard-hit rate indicate he's not as far off as it appears.
We're seeing the opposite out of Bryce Elder. All his surface stats look great, but there are plenty of red flags in his underlying profile.
His FIP is about two runs higher than his ERA, and he's giving up hard-hit contact a whopping 47.6% of the time. That's alarming.
The Marlins aren't a team that's going to take the cover off the baseball and tee off for double-digit runs. Their offense has quietly been competent of late, though, ranking 18th in wOBA against righties over the past two weeks (by comparison, the Braves slot 13th).
I see an edge on the Marlins in this spot, even more so if Acuna is held out of the lineup.
Bet: Marlins (-130)
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Alvarez is slated to match up against a unique right-hander in Anthony DeSclafani. He has a five-pitch mix but throws very few fastballs (10.6%) and no curveballs. DeSclafani primarily relies on a slider-sinker combination.
While some batters would be thrown off against that pitch arsenal, Alvarez can not only handle it but excel against it.
Alvarez teed off against the slider - DeSclafani's most prominent pitch - a season ago, posting a wOBA of .456 and generating hard contact better than 56% of the time.
He was also strong against the sinker, posting an above-average wOBA and hard-hit rate of nearly 64%.
In short, Alvarez is excellent against righties and smashes the two pitches DeSclafani most heavily relies on. Expect him to make some noise at the plate.
Steven Matz under 5.5 strikeouts (-132)
Matz hasn't enjoyed a strong start to the season. He owns a 6.23 ERA, a sky-high WHIP of 1.73, and he remains winless through five starts.
Whether or not Matz finds a way to right the ship Tuesday, I don't think the path to doing so will be via the strikeout.
The Angels are fantastic against left-handed pitching. They own a .364 wOBA - good for fourth in the majors - and simply don't strikeout versus lefties. They have been sat down only 18.6% of the time, a mark that's bested by only three teams.
For fun, let's say Matz faces four batters per inning on average. At the rate the Angels strikeout against lefties, that would put him at little less than four Ks through five innings.
Matz hasn't even made it through six innings once this season, so it'll be tough to get to six strikeouts without extreme efficiency, something I don't see coming against this Angels team.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
