MLB Thursday best bets: Phillies to blast Rockies

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 07: Trea Turner #7 of the Philadelphia Phillies and J.T. Realmuto #10 of the Philadelphia Phillies react following a two run home run by Realmuto during the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park on April 07, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images Sport / Getty

There are only seven games scheduled for Thursday's slate, with just five coming in the night window.

Even so, there are plenty of enticing options on the betting board. Let's waste no time in getting to three of them.

Rockies (+190) @ Phillies (-220)

The Rockies are an unmitigated disaster. They own a putrid 5-14 record and have dropped eight consecutive games heading into the series opener in Philadelphia.

They are struggling mightily in all aspects. The Rockies are allowing a whopping 6.5 runs per contest, which slots them second to last in the majors. This while generating only 3.8 runs per game (24th) and playing half their games in the friendly confines of Coors Field.

I don't see things getting any better for them on Thursday night. Taking the bump will be Ryan Feltner, who is off to about the worst start imaginable. He has conceded 13 runs through 13.1 innings of work. He has walked double-digit batters and allowed nearly two batters on base per inning. Oh, and he benefited from two of three starts coming on the road.

The Phillies are off to a somewhat sluggish start this season, but they can really hit, especially against righties. Only the Tampa Bay Rays and San Francisco Giants have posted higher wOBAs vs. right-handed pitching.

Feltner is likely in for another very tough outing, facing off against such a potent offense in a hitter-friendly park.

There is no reason to believe the Rockies can keep up at the dish. They can not generate any sort of offense away from Coors. On the year, they slot 29th in wOBA and 27th in K% on the road. They don't get on base, and they get sat down a lot.

The Phillies should get the party started early and run away with this one.

Bet: Phillies -1.5 (-115)

Bryan Reynolds over 1.5 total bases (-115)

Reynolds has taken the cover off the baseball vs. right-handed pitchers this season. He owns a .423 wOBA and .351 ISO against righties, both of which are top-tier marks.

He is no doubt chomping at the bit for the chance to square off against Luke Weaver tonight. Weaver is a journeyman pitcher who has posted an ERA of 6.50 or higher in two of the past three years.

He has a very plain pitch arsenal, relying heavily on his fastball. It just so happens Reynolds feasted against that pitch last season, posting a .423 wOBA and 53% hard hit rate vs. four-seamers.

Reynolds is red hot and should see plenty of pitches in his wheelhouse against Weaver. Look for him to take advantage.

Jameson Taillon over 5.5 strikeouts (+120)

I love what I have seen from Taillon in the early going of his Cubs tenure. While he owns an 0-2 record and 4.50 ERA through three games, he has pitched a lot better than those numbers would suggest.

Taillon has been extremely efficient at generating strikeouts, sitting down 10.29 batters per nine innings of work. That's a very strong number.

He has done a good job of limiting hard contact and his FIP (1.89) is drastically better than his ERA, indicating we should see some regression should he continue to pitch as he is.

The Dodgers do have a very strong offense but they strike out a lot (fifth highest K% vs. right-handed pitchers) and Taillon has proven he can handle it.

The last start Taillon made came against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. He struck out seven batters and conceded only two hits (zero runs) through five innings of work.

That's the second time in a row Taillon recorded seven strikeouts, with his season debut against a stingy Brewers team being the lone game in which he didn't accomplish such a feat.

With Taillon pitching well and facing off against a high strikeout team, I'm happy to roll the dice at such a generous price.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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