We have a pint-sized slate ahead of us Thursday night with just five games set to be played. Luckily, there's still plenty of value on the board.
Let's take a closer look.
Tigers (+200) @ Blue Jays (-240)
The Blue Jays took the first two games of this series, outscoring the bottom-feeding Tigers 13-6 on aggregate.
Another win - likely in convincing fashion - should be coming their way in the series finale.
Chris Bassitt started his Blue Jays career in about the worst way possible. He was blown up for nine runs in his opening start against the Cardinals. Although he limited the runs last time out, he walked five batters and once again struggled with control versus the Angels.
Although Bassitt has performed poorly, he's pitching nowhere close to his true talent. It's only a matter of time before he puts forth a quality start - and this seems like the perfect spot to get it.
The Tigers rank dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and are at or near the basement of the league in pretty much every offensive category. They're putrid offensively.
Bassitt should be able to find his footing in this game. If all else fails, the Blue Jays' offense is more than capable of bailing him out.
The Jays rank second - behind only the Rays - in wRC+ against righties. Their offense is loaded and should be able to do a ton of damage in a more hitter-friendly version of the Rogers Center - especially against Spencer Turnbull.
Turnbull conceded 12 runs through eight innings over his first couple of starts of the year. This isn't a good matchup for him to stop the bleeding - and he has the league's worst bullpen behind him.
Look for the Blue Jays to make plenty of noise at the dish en route to a multi-run victory.
Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)
Nick Martinez under 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
I think this line is a little too high for Martinez based on his history. He spent last season split as a reliever and a starter. As a result, the Padres pitcher rarely registered six strikeouts or more.
To get rid of the noise, I zeroed in on games in which he tossed 75 pitches or more and was given truly meaningful work - which is no doubt the plan for him in this game.
Over the 12 qualified starts, Martinez recorded five strikeouts or fewer nine times. That's only a 25% hit rate as far as going over the number.
Martinez isn't a power strikeout arm, and the Brewers don't fit the profile of a team that'll help bring out his ceiling.
They've hit righties extremely well in the early going, ranking fifth in wOBA and second in OBP. They also own the fourth-highest walk rate in the league. Although they strike out at a mid-tier rate, they generate so many walks – and hit the ball so well – that there should be a lot of high-pitch at-bats.
I think 4.5 would be a more appropriate line here.
Nick Lodolo over 7.5 strikeouts (+110)
Lodolo registered 21 strikeouts over the course of his first two starts, breezing over the number in each of them. I expect that to be the case again this time around.
He has a fantastic arm with electric off-speed pitches that tend to induce a lot of swings and misses. The 25-year-old has produced an absolutely ridiculous 11.86 K/9 since joining the Reds as a major leaguer.
What I love about Lodolo is that he works deep into games. He's not one of those guys who'll come out throwing hard stuff and last five innings before his team pulls the plug. He has a full gas tank, and the Reds generally work him into the ground before removing him from the bump.
He's thrown at least 92 pitches in nine consecutive starts. Lodolo is fully stretched out this season, too, having thrown 106 and 109 over his first two games.
The Phillies are really struggling with their discipline this season, striking out a whopping 26.3% of the time. Lodolo recorded 12 Ks against them last time out, and I wouldn't be surprised if he flirts with double digits again.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
