MLB Tuesday best bets: Phillies to hang around vs. Padres
Thanks to the postponement in New York, we have two playoff games to look forward to Tuesday.
I already dove into a few specials for the Guardians-Yankees game, so I'll turn my attention to the series opener between the Phillies and Padres.
Let's take a closer look at a side - and a prop - worth backing.
Phillies (+105) @ Padres (-125)
The Phillies enter this contest on a run. They have won five of six postseason games thus far, completely dismantling the Cardinals and Braves.
They swept St. Louis on the road with an 8-3 aggregate scoreline. Then Philadelphia took things up another notch, winning three of four against Atlanta while outscoring the defending World Series champion by 11.
I'm not sure if they'll take out the San Diego Padres as well, but I like their chances of making things difficult.
Rather than backing them to win this game, I'm going to play the Phillies to keep things close, at least in the early going.
Both teams are sending dominant right-handed pitchers to the mound in Zack Wheeler and Yu Darvish.
The former is in slightly better form, having posted a 2.18 FIP and struck out nearly 29% of batters over the past month.
Darvish's numbers lag a little behind, with him carrying a 3.52 FIP over the same period of time.
What tips the scales further are the bats. Philadelphia has hit for a lot of power of late, sitting third in ISO against righties since Sept. 1.
San Diego falls well behind in that category, sitting 23rd in ISO over the same stretch.
With Wheeler pitching so well and Philadelphia having more pop at the plate, there's value in backing the Phillies to keep things level - or earn a lead - through five innings.
Bet: Phillies F5 +0.5 (-145)
Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Darvish has a ridiculous six-pitch mix but leans more heavily on his cutter and fastball, combining to throw one of the two more than 60% of the time.
That plays right into Harper's wheelhouse. He fared very well against cutters during the regular season, posting a .460 wOBA and generating hard contact nearly 54% of the time. He was Philadelphia's most dangerous hitter against that pitch.
Harper posted nearly identical numbers against the four-seamer, recording a .465 wOBA and 54.2% hard-hit rate against more than 500 fastballs.
His numbers aren't the best on the roster against the fastball, but he's near the top and is best equipped to handle either of Darvish's two most prominent pitches.
Harper has a lot of power and, despite missing 63 games, ranked second on the Phillies in regular-season doubles.
It just takes one swing to get there.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.