Our MLB playoff bets got off to a pretty good start Friday.
The Cleveland Guardians - our pick to win their American League wild-card series against the Tampa Bay Rays - claimed victory in the series opener.
The Philadelphia Phillies also stole a road win against the St. Louis Cardinals, pushing the game over in the process; we noted in Thursday's futures post that this series could be one worth targeting for overs.
The lone blemish came from Max Scherzer. He failed to hit the over on his strikeout prop, retiring four batters before being pulled from the New York Mets' Game 1 loss to the San Diego Padres.
We'll look to build on our momentum with a couple of plays for Game 2 of the Toronto Blue Jays' wild-card series against the Seattle Mariners.
Mariners (+130) @ Blue Jays (-155)
The Blue Jays put forth a truly lifeless performance in Game 1. Alek Manoah allowed three runs in the top half of the first inning, which essentially put the game away before it really got started.
Simply put, Toronto failed to muster any sort of offense against Luis Castillo. Very rarely did he get into trouble, slamming the door shut whenever there appeared to be the slightest of openings.
It was an excellent showing by the visiting Mariners and a poor one from the hosts, but we expect a drastically different performance from the Blue Jays with their backs against the wall in Game 2.
For starters, a date with Robbie Ray should be a much better opportunity to create offense than one with Castillo. Ray labored down the stretch, allowing four runs or more in three of his last five starts while conceding eight long balls.
The veteran lefty posted a porous 5.27 ERA and an even worse FIP (5.89) during that period. If the stretch run is any indication, the Blue Jays look primed to exploit Ray's struggles.
Toronto hit extremely well against left-handed hurlers over the last five weeks of the regular season, ranking fourth in ISO and fifth in wOBA. The Blue Jays are also familiar with Ray from his time with the club; they're surely aware of the best ways to attack him.
Kevin Gausman, meanwhile, is well-equipped to slow down the Mariners' offense. He's allowed little hard contact over the last month, inducing a lot of ground balls while striking out more than 30% of opposing batters.
Seattle has struck out at an above-average clip over the last few weeks and grounded out more often than all but seven teams, so the Mariners' weaknesses look to align with Gausman's strengths.
Expect a quality effort from Gausman, who will give Toronto a chance to get back into the series.
Bet: Blue Jays (-155)
Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 bases (+135)
We're going to double-dip on the Blue Jays and back Teoscar Hernandez to make some noise at the plate.
As mentioned, Toronto is quite good against left-handed pitchers. And Hernandez might be the team's biggest threat in such situations.
Hernandez teed off against lefties this season, posting downright elite splits. He managed a ridiculous .413 wOBA and .363 ISO against left-handed hurlers during the regular season, comfortably leading his team in both categories.
Hernandez also excels against Ray's primary pitch, the four-seam fastball. His numbers were exceptional against four-seamers this year, as he posted a .486 wOBA and .733 SLG% while generating hard contact nearly 70% of the time.
Win or lose, Hernandez should be able to put together some good swings and hit the over on this number.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
