It's getting to the time of year when every game feels so important. Whether it's a team trying to improve its standing in a pennant race or bottom-feeders pushing for losses to lock down higher spots in the draft, many of these contests hold a lot of meaning.
Let's dive into a couple of games at both ends of the spectrum with today's best bets.
Athletics (-105) @ Nationals (-115)
The Athletics and Nationals begin a three-game series tonight in a battle between the last-place teams in the AL and NL, respectively.
It's hardly the most exciting game or series to get involved in, but an edge is an edge, and I see one with the Athletics.
Oakland's offense has a juicy matchup in front of them against Erick Fedde. He hasn't pitched well this season, posting a 4.88 ERA and 4.91 FIP.
You might think the Athletics don't have the weapons to take advantage, but that's not necessarily true. They've quietly hit righties very well of late away from their pitcher-friendly home ballpark.
In fact, the Athletics rank 13th in wOBA against right-handed pitchers on the road this month. That sandwiches them between the Brewers and Orioles - two competent sides on the playoff bubble.
There isn't a lot of high-end talent in their lineup, but the Athletics are making the most out of what they have. They actually grade out fairly well with regards to power as well, sitting 18th in ISO.
If Fedde pitches to the level we've seen for the majority of the season, the Athletics can take advantage.
With Cole Irvin on the mound, they also have a good chance of keeping the Nationals' offense in check. He has benefited from a little luck this year, but his 3.89 FIP is still solid.
The Nationals also struggle mightily against lefties. They have won just 28% of their games against left-handed starters and sit 26th in wOBA versus LHP over the last two months.
Back the A's to grind out a win against the last-place Nationals.
Bet: Athletics (-105)
Cubs (+180) @ Blue Jays (-210)
We backed the Blue Jays on the spread Monday, and they came up a run short in extra innings. We're going right back to the well against the Cubs on Tuesday.
Kevin Gausman is having one of the best - yet most unlucky - seasons I've seen from a pitcher. He owns a sparkling 2.01 FIP, has struck out nearly 28% of the batters faced, and limited hard contact effectively - but his ERA still sits at 3.15.
That's a strong number, no doubt, but his counting stats would be amazingly good if not for a BABIP of .373. That's actually one of the highest numbers of all time against a pitcher who's seeing Gausman's kind of usage.
Put another way, balls put in play are resulting in hits nearly 37.5% of the time. The expectation is that number would end up around 27.5%, give or take a couple of percentage points. It may not seem like a ton, but over the course of a full season, that's 30-plus extra hits against; it makes a difference.
While the Cubs have a respectable offense, it's not great. They're 22nd in runs scored and 16th in OBP this season. They can have explosive nights - especially against weaker arms - but Gausman has shown the ability to shut down much better sides, like the Yankees and Twins.
Although Toronto's offense has been anything but consistent of late, a familiar face in Marcus Stroman might be able to bring out the best in them.
He hasn't pitched all that well over the last month, posting an ERA and FIP approaching 4.5.
Stroman is still inducing a lot of ground balls - which is something the Blue Jays have struggled with - but he's allowing far too much hard contact.
Among the day's projected starters, only Kutter Crawford has allowed hard-hit balls more often over the last month - and the Blue Jays were all over him last time out, generating 10 hits and four runs in less than five innings.
Look for their offense to take it up a notch in this one.
Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+100)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
