MLB weekend best bets: Yankees to rebound in St. Louis
We have a whopping 31 games scheduled over the next couple of days. With so many options, we can afford to be a little more selective.
It just so happens that the New York Yankees - owners of the league's second-best record - and the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in favorable spots.
Let's look at the best way to attack these matchups.
Yankees (-150) @ Cardinals (+130)
Aug 5, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Yankees have dropped three consecutive games only twice all season. I don't see it happening for a third time Friday.
Nestor Cortes will look to break New York out of this mini-slump. While the St. Louis Cardinals hit lefties quite well - they're fourth in wOBA against left-handers since July 1 - they figure to have a tougher time against Cortes.
He's pitched very well over the last month, posting a 2.91 ERA and 3.30 FIP while striking out well over eight batters per nine innings. Cortes has also allowed hard contact just 25% of the time during this stretch.
If he can hold the Cardinals to a manageable number, the Yankees' offense should be able to take care of the rest.
New York hitters have caused a world of problems for right-handed pitchers since the beginning of July. They sit fourth in wOBA and second in ISO during this stretch.
That spells trouble for Dakota Hudson, who seems poised for regression. His FIP (5.29) and xFIP (5.34) are more than two runs higher than his ERA (3.18) over the last month. He's benefited greatly from luck, as his .204 BABIP would suggest.
Getting lucky against the Washington Nationals or a banged-up Phillies team is one thing. But the Yankees are a much different animal.
Expect that to show Friday night.
Bet: Yankees (-150)
Nationals (TBD) @ Phillies (TBD)
Aug 6, 6:05 p.m. EST
The Phillies won 5-3 the last time Ranger Suarez started against the Nationals. I expect a similar script this time around.
Suarez enters this game in excellent form on the mound. He didn't give up an earned run across three starts in July, piling up 18 strikeouts and just two walks during that stretch.
While Suarez did play teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, the powerhouse Atlanta Braves were mixed in.
Meanwhile, Washington has struggled immensely against lefties over the last month and change, posting a putrid .280 wOBA and .118 ISO. Those numbers include a bevy of plate appearances from Juan Soto and Josh Bell, who are no longer in the picture.
Not only should Suarez be able to have another strong outing against the Nationals, but Philadelphia could also be in line for a big day at the plate. Patrick Corbin owns a 5.16 FIP and has allowed well over two homers per nine innings over the last month.
The Phillies sit 14th in wOBA against lefties during that stretch, so they're more than capable of capitalizing on plus matchups.
Look for them to do just that Saturday evening.
Bet: Phillies -1.5 (good to -120)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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