MLB Monday best bets: Dodgers offense will overwhelm Bumgarner, D-Backs
We finished with a 1-3 mark in our MLB picks over the weekend, highlighted by a major swing-and-miss on Hunter Greene's start on Sunday. Can we get right heading into the new week? Here are our best bets for Monday:
Nationals under 3 runs (-105) @ Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
The Nationals are careening toward the bottom of the MLB standings, and their inconsistent offense is largely to blame.
Only two teams own a better batting average over the first six weeks than Washington (.253). However, since May 4, the Nationals have plated a league-average 45 runs (3.5 per game) with few walks and limited power - including from star hitter Juan Soto (11-for-42, three HR) and Josh Bell (12-for-43, one HR).
As a result, the Nats have scored two or fewer runs in six of those 13 games this season - including four of their last six and each of their three meetings with the Marlins earlier this season. One of those came against Miami ace Sandy Alcantara, who threw a seven-inning gem in his last start and has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his seven starts this season.
Dodgers -1.5 (-115) vs. Diamondbacks, 10:10 p.m.
The Diamondbacks have gotten off to one of the more surprising starts of this young MLB season, but their luck has started to run dry over the past week. And I expect it to catch up with them against the division-leading Dodgers.
Madison Bumgarner has posted a shiny 1.78 ERA over his first seven starts, but the advanced metrics tell a different story. His 4.69 FIP is currently the second-worst of his 14-year career, and he's currently walking more batters per nine innings (3.6) with fewer strikeouts (5.9) than ever before.
He's also been hit harder than last year but has survived with a career-best .207 BABIP and is lucky to have allowed just four home runs - three of which came in his last three starts. That won't fly against the Dodgers, who rank sixth in hard-hit rate (41.9%) and second in xwOBA (.355).
Los Angeles starter Tony Gonsolin also has an ERA (1.33) well below his FIP (3.44), but he's pulled it off by suppressing hard contact and forcing a high rate of ground balls - a solid approach against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks seventh in ground ball rate (45.6%) and dead last in xBA (.227).
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.