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Signing Carlos Correa: Pros, cons, best fits

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When free agency resumes once Major League Baseball ratifies its next collective bargaining agreement, Carlos Correa will be arguably the most sought-after star still on the market.

Let's break down some of the pros and cons of signing the shortstop, as well as some potential suitors for his services:

Pros

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In a new golden age of shortstops, arguably no one is more complete at the position than Correa, and he's barely 27. Since breaking into the majors in 2015, here's where Correa sits among shortstops with at least 700 games played, ranked by wRC+:

Player GP HR AVG/OBP/SLG WAR wRC+
Carlos Correa 752 133 .277/.356/.481 25.1 128
Xander Bogaerts 952 128 .297/.362/.474 31.4 121
Francisco Lindor 902 158 .278/.343/.478 32.1 117
Trevor Story 745 148 .272/.340/.523 21.6 112
Marcus Semien 935 152 .257/.326/.449 24.6 111
Javier Baez 810 140 .272/.313/.488 18.3 107

Even further, Correa is fresh off his first Platinum Glove, taking his two-time Gold Glove defense to the next level in 2021. At 12 outs above average, according to Statcast, the two-time All-Star ranks in the 98th percentile, only behind Nicky Lopez, Lindor, Andrelton Simmons, and Brandon Crawford at the position. Meanwhile, Bogaerts - one of two shortstops with a higher WAR than Correa since 2015 - is looking like he might need to move off the position shortly and Lindor secured his $341-million payday last winter.

Arguably the best all-around player at a premium position hitting the open market while younger than Corey Seager or any of his other peers. What's not to like?

Cons

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Well, a couple of things.

First, he'll cost a lot.

Put one way, it's just money. And that money won't help the team win ball games if it sits idly in the owner's pocket. However, teams are being run in a more fiscally responsible and cost-averse way these days, and the new CBA could impact that even more. If the luxury tax is lowered or the penalties worsened, the added cost of signing any player for $300 million or more could become prohibitive.

Additionally, due to Correa rejecting his one-year, $18.4-million qualifying offer from the Houston Astros, he'll cost draft-pick compensation for any team that lures him away. In the grand scheme of things, a couple of reasonably high picks - though not a team's highest selection - to land Correa is a small cost.

Then there's the matter of Correa not staying on the field. While he has performed at the highest level when healthy, he's played 200 fewer games than Bogaerts since the beginning of 2015 and 150 fewer than Lindor. A myriad of injuries has kept the superstar sidelined throughout his career, with his back causing the biggest issues. That being said, he's missed merely 16 games over the past two years.

And, finally, the elephant in the room. Baseball fans will likely never know the full benefits of the Astros' cheating scandal to each individual hitter. But some fans will surely point to the sharp dropoff in Correa's production from 2017 to 2018 as an indication that the former AL Rookie of the Year drew outsized advantages. Moreover, he was one of the most vocal combatants with the media regarding the scandal, and some fans will never forgive him for that.

Potential suitors

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Houston Astros: Houston seems resigned to let its former No. 1 overall pick walk and move Alex Bregman to short - a position the two-time All-Star has always wanted anyways. Whether it's distancing themselves from the players attached to the scandal - of which only Jose Altuve really remains - or committing to a rebuild under new general manager James Click, the Astros just don't seem to want to retain Correa that badly. But with the AL West up for grabs, they really should.

New York Yankees: The Yankees can't go on much longer pretending that Gleyber Torres is their shortstop of the future. Even Aaron Boone seemed to acknowledge Torres' time at short was over down the stretch, playing him exclusively at second base from Sept. 13 onward. Boone will suggest that teams have "closed the gap" on the Yankees, but the Bronx Bombers have allowed it to happen by sitting on their hands and refusing to meaningfully spend. It's now been 13 years since the Yankees won a pennant. Signing Correa gets them closer.

Detroit Tigers: The Tigers have already made some splashes this winter, and they might be done after adding Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez. Even further, they publicly don't seem willing to spend on a single player what Correa seems poised to earn. However, the A.J. Hinch connection is pretty tantalizing and Correa - the youngest elite shortstop on the market - fits into the team's competitive window, which the Tigers seem ready to begin opening shortly before their best prospects reach the majors. It's just a matter of whether they'd rather allocate resources elsewhere and stick with Javy at short.

Los Angeles Angels: With Anthony Rendon already costing $245 million, it's unclear whether the Angels have the desire to spend an additional $300 million or more on another player to make up the left side of their infield. New general manager Perry Minasian seems to be retooling in a somewhat conservative but measured way in an attempt to build a team that might challenge for a championship during Mike Trout's waning prime. The Angels have added Noah Syndergaard on a one-year deal and retained Raisel Iglesias for a combined $79 million. Correa would cost five times that, but he'd go a long way toward no longer wasting Trout's career.

Philadelphia Phillies: A bit off the board as a potential landing spot, but the fit itself is almost perfect. The Phillies are now run by big-spending executive Dave Dombrowski, who's trying to fortify a winning club that's squandering the early returns of its $330-million deal to Bryce Harper. Didi Gregorius seemed like an adequate stopgap at short when Philadelphia signed him last offseason, but the 31-year-old has clearly lost a step and put up an atrocious 68 wRC+ this past year. The back end of the rotation could also use some help, but giving Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola more run support with Correa would make perfect sense.

Chicago Cubs: It's hard to figure out what the Cubs are actually doing. On the one hand, they're trading away Baez and Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish while non-tendering Kyle Schwarber. Then, on the other hand, they're signing Marcus Stroman to a $71-million contract. If they're planning on contending and want to use their suddenly very flexible payroll space to land Correa, they could easily. If they're still committed to a rebuild, this doesn't make as much sense.

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