MLB weekend best bets: Scherzer can't be stopped amid Cy Young bid
After a 3-0 week on our weekly MLB picks, we're once again gunning for perfection with a tasty slate of games over the weekend. Here are our favorite plays:
Padres-Cardinals over 9 (-105)
Sept. 17, 8:15 p.m. ET
Everything about this game screams over, and it's hard to understand why this number is as low as it is.
Start with the pitchers. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has struggled to find any sort of rhythm after his long midseason stint on the IL, and it's carried into a brutal September with an 8.31 ERA and at least four runs allowed in all three starts. Vince Velasquez hasn't been much better for the Padres, surrendering five or more runs in four of his last five starts with a ghastly 12.23 ERA over that stretch.
So these lineups must be slumping hard, right? Not exactly. San Diego has plated 16 runs over its last two games after a mini slump, while St. Louis has scored at least seven runs in each of its last three games. Bet this one over with confidence.
Reds under (TBD) vs. Dodgers
Sept. 18, 2:10 p.m.
The three-time Cy Young winner owns a ridiculous 0.88 ERA and 1.27 FIP since the Nationals traded him to Los Angeles in late July. He hasn't allowed a run across his last 30 innings, during which he's recorded 42 strikeouts with just one walk.
He's simply too much to handle for this Reds lineup, which is averaging 2.7 runs over its last 10 games. They'll be lucky to scratch across more than a run or two - if that - with Scherzer on the mound and a top-five bullpen behind him.
Mariners over (TBD) at Royals
Sept. 19, 2:10 p.m.
This bet is simple: Jackson Kowar is pitching, so we bet the over. The Royals' struggling prospect carries an 11.50 ERA into this one, which follows a disastrous start in which he allowed five runs in one inning to the Athletics.
That followed a six-inning, six-run showing against the Orioles, so we know Kowar's struggles extend to lousy lineups, too. Kansas City seems insistent on letting its talented young arm work out his issues with a long leash, which should be good news for the Mariners in this one.
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