MLB weekend best bets: Castillo becoming must-bet after slow start
We returned to winning ways in a condensed Thursday slate, bringing our yearlong record to 48-38-3 on MLB picks. Here are our best bets heading into the weekend.
Dodgers over 5.5 runs (-110) vs. Rockies
July 23, 10:10 p.m. ET
The Dodgers' lineup is among the best in the bigs but has struggled lately, scoring five or fewer runs in four of its last five games. Expect that to change Friday against one of baseball's worst starters.
Chi Chi Gonzalez performed admirably early in the year, but the wheels have come off. Over his last nine appearances, he's posted a 7.36 ERA and lasted more than five innings just twice. The Rockies veteran has been particularly brutal against the Dodgers, allowing seven runs through four frames in his most recent start July 16.
Cardinals under (TBD) at Reds
July 24, 7:10 p.m.
Is Luis Castillo becoming a must-bet pitcher with every passing start? The Reds ace owned the worst ERA (7.22) in the majors entering June, but he's turned it around with a 1.76 ERA in his last nine starts, holding all nine of those opponents to three runs or fewer.
The Cardinals have quietly won five of seven games since the All-Star break, but they've done so without much pop at the plate, scoring three or fewer runs in five of those seven contests. Their offensive struggles should continue against Castillo on Saturday.
White Sox-Brewers under (TBD)
July 25, 7:08 p.m.
It's hard to find a better pitching matchup on the board than this one, which features two of the most reliable under bets in baseball.
No starter has been more consistent for under bettors in recent years than Lance Lynn, whose 51-26-3 (66.2%) record to the under since June 2, 2018, is the most profitable in MLB. He's also been among the 20 most profitable under bets this season, while Brandon Woodruff (12-6-1) has been even better, ranking just outside of the top 10.
Neither the White Sox nor the Brewers have a lineup healthy or potent enough to cause bettors to fear any low total that the market tosses up. Games with a total under 8 have cashed 58.6% to the under this season, while those with a total below 7 have hit the under 57.5% of the time.