NL division winners odds: Best bets, sleepers

On Wednesday, we dug into the odds for the 2021 American League divisions, picking one sleeper and best bet from each group.

Here, we'll close out the two-part series with the National League races.

NL West

Sleeper and best bet: Padres (+200)

The Dodgers are the best team in baseball, but these odds imply they'd beat the Padres for the NL West title three out of every four times. I think there's enough value to bet San Diego.

San Diego's rotation is as deep as it is nasty. FanGraphs' Steamer projections tab the top four pitchers - newcomers Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Jose Musgrove, as well as Dinelson Lamet - for a combined 12.2 WAR. And that's without mentioning 2020 Opening Day starter Chris Paddack.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will vie for MVP honors and Manny Machado was even better than his infield partner in 2020. The sky is the limit for a franchise that has everything coming together at the right time.

NL Central

Sleeper: Reds (+500)

Is now the time to pounce on the Reds? They've offered glimpses of their potential, but the market's cooled even after they finished 31-29 for a second-place finish in the Central and a postseason berth.

The pitching staff lost a lot of luster after Trevor Bauer and multiple key relievers departed. At the plate, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos, and Mike Moustakas could all turn in 30-homer seasons at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park for an offense that desperately needs it - Cincinnati scored the third-fewest runs per game last year (3.92).

Neither the Brewers nor the Cubs are attractive at their current prices. If you're looking for a value play in the division, this is it.

Best bet: Cardinals (+100)

All the Cardinals do is win. The last time they finished below .500 and worse than third in the division was 1999. St. Louis has nabbed four Central crowns in the last eight years - and that's a stretch that began two years after winning the World Series. The franchise's average winning percentage since 2013 is .554, which is north of 89 wins.

I envision that would be good enough to bring another division title back to St. Louis, which expressed its desire to win by trading for Nolan Arenado.

NL East

Sleeper: Nationals (+800)

I can get on board with 8-1 on a team that won a World Series two years ago. The current roster is a lot more boom-or-bust, but it'll be fun nonetheless: Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell headline a handful of additions alongside franchise cornerstone Juan Soto, who is the betting favorite for NL MVP.

If the Marlins can pocket a playoff bid over a 60-game season, the Nats have the talent to win the division over a full one.

Best bet: Mets (+150)

The Mets' rotation is going to vie for tops in baseball. If you thought San Diego's outlook was promising, New York's top four - Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, and Carlos Carrasco - project for a collective 13.0 WAR.

New York had to plug some holes in its lineup over the winter, and it did. Francisco Lindor is now in the fold, and while James McCann's arrival isn't quite as glamorous, it gives the Mets a formidable backstop who earned an All-Star appearance in 2019 and is fresh off his two best seasons.

The Mets have been in flux for a while, but things are on an upward trend. They're off a 26-34 campaign in which they were a couple wins better than their performance suggested and were one of the majors' most injured teams.

If they stay healthy, they'll scoot past the Braves for the East crown in 2021.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.