AL MVP best bets, fades: What to do with the Yankees' stars
Picking who will supplant Mike Trout for AL MVP before the regular season is arguably more fun than predicting the World Series champion. The 29-year-old Angels superstar is the overwhelming favorite for the 2021 season.
It won't come without a challenge, however, as the American League is littered with talent across the board.
Odds to win AL MVP
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mike Trout (LAA) | +200 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | +1000 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | +1200 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | +1200 |
| Matt Chapman (OAK) | +1500 |
| Anthony Rendon (LAA) | +1500 |
| Jose Abreu (CHW) | +2500 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | +2500 |
| Yoan Moncada (CHW) | +2500 |
| Luis Robert (CHW) | +2500 |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | +2500 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | +3000 |
| Yasmani Grandal (CHW) | +3000 |
| George Springer (TOR) | +3000 |
| Tim Anderson (CHW) | +3300 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | +3300 |
| Xander Bogaerts (BOS) | +3300 |
| Eloy Jimenez (CHW) | +3300 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAA) | +3300 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +3300 |
| DJ LeMahieu (NYY) | +4000 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | +4000 |
| Carlos Correa (HOU) | +4000 |
| Matt Olson (OAK) | +4000 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | +4000 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | +4000 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | +5000 |
| Josh Donaldson (MIN) | +5000 |
| Joey Gallo (TEX) | +5000 |
| Ramon Laureano (OAK) | +5000 |
| Kyle Lewis (SEA) | +5000 |
| J.D. Martinez (BOS) | +5000 |
| Austin Meadows (TB) | +5000 |
| Luis Arraez (MIN) | +6000 |
| Wander Franco (TB) | +6000 |
| Jorge Polanco (MIN) | +6000 |
| Alex Verdugo (BOS) | +6000 |
| Luke Voit (NYY) | +6000 |
| Adalberto Mondesi (KC) | +7500 |
| Miguel Sano (MIN) | +7500 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) | +8000 |
| Franmil Reyes (CLE) | +8000 |
| Gary Sanchez (NYY) | +8000 |
| Kyle Seager (SEA) | +8000 |
| Jo Adell (LAA) | +10000 |
| Jorge Soler (KC) | +10000 |
The immediate reaction is often to point out which players are undervalued, but I couldn't help but spot a sitting duck right off the bat.
Fade: Yasmani Grandal (+3000)
I'm having a really, really hard time getting to this price.
Grandal put up some good numbers in 2020 - he finished in the 75th percentile or better in exit velocity and hard-hit rate - but is he really worth the investment in an offensive-driven market at 30-1? He's 32 and coming off a season in which he was on pace for just 2.8 WAR.
FanGraphs' Steamer projections tab the catcher for a team-leading 4.5 WAR this year. However, defense is equally factored into those numbers, and I'm not sure that's ultimately going to matter.
This list is loaded, and Grandal at 30-1 is almost disrespectful to those in the neighborhood.
Bet: Gleyber Torres (+2500)
Six Yankees players are included in the current field. Torres is arguably the most intriguing.
After joining Joe DiMaggio as the second player in franchise history to record more than 30 homers at age 22 or younger, Torres opened 12-1 in 2020 AL MVP odds, tied with teammate Aaron Judge. However, he underwhelmed amid an injury-riddled season, slashing a paltry .243/.356./.358.
If you're a believer in the two-time All-Star, this is much a better grab than last year's price. Torres plays in a major market and on a team that's expected to contend for a World Series. Should we see more of the 2019 version, the comeback narrative wouldn't hurt the 24-year-old's chances, either.
Fade: DJ LeMahieu (+4000)
While Torres struggled in 2020, his double-play partner blossomed.
LeMahieu opened eyes across the league after finishing No. 1 in batting average (.371) and No. 5 in both hits (71) and WAR (5.0). Still, it was only good for third in the MVP race. Jose Abreu and Jose Ramirez - Nos. 1 and 2, respectively - both had better power numbers than LeMahieu, edging him in homers, RBIs, and slugging percentage.
There's not much else LeMahieu can do, especially over a traditional 162-game schedule when hitters can close the gap on his contact and average stats - and those aren't tipping points for voters anyway.
This is an easy sell.
Bet: Bo Bichette (+3000)
It's almost scary how much potential the Blue Jays' offense has. Toronto finished seventh in the majors in runs per game last season, then went out and added a couple big bats to an already potent lineup. If there's one player on the roster to invest in for MVP, it's Bichette.
The 22-year-old was on pace for 5.5 WAR while slashing a noteworthy .301/.328/.512 over a limited sample last season. His advanced metrics were off the charts, too, as he was in the 82nd percentile or better in barrel percentage, xBA, and xSLG.
Both Steamer and ZiPS projections forecast Bichette topping 4.0 WAR with roughly 24 homers. If he can boost his exit velocity and hard-hit rate - both finished in the 57th percentile - Bichette could morph into one of the league's premier all-around hitters.
Frankly, getting 30-1 on a player who'll hit in the middle of a playoff-caliber lineup and against the AL East on a routine basis is a steal.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.