WS Game 4 betting preview: Offenses have their say vs. pair of southpaws

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With two outs and two strikes in the bottom of the ninth inning Thursday night, we were one pitch away from moving to 3-0 in the World Series.

And then Randy Arozarena hit a meaningless home run - in the context of the game, at least - to push the score just over the total. We had under 7.5. That's about as bad a beat as there is, but all we can do is shake it off and move on.

Here's what's on tap for Game 4.

Dodgers (-165) at Rays (+140), 8:08 p.m. ET

The Dodgers have an opportunity to snatch a commanding 3-1 series lead Saturday night as they hand the ball to southpaw Julio Urias, who's coming off a pair of electrifying efforts in the National League Championship Series. The 24-year-old limited the Braves to only one run in eight innings across two appearances, allowing just three hits. But Atlanta's lineup had particularly poor splits against left-handed pitching all year, and this will be a tougher test for Urias. The Rays' splits favored matchups against southpaws during the regular season, with Tampa slashing .237/.340/.455 against lefties in 2020.

Another benefit for this Rays lineup is that Urias doesn't miss a lot of bats. His below-average 20.1% strikeout rate and 26% whiff rate should both help a Tampa team that strikes out frequently. The Rays will get more wood to the ball against Urias, and they tend to get positive results when they do so against lefties.

Opposing Urias for L.A. is another southpaw: Ryan Yarbrough, who makes his second appearance of this series after throwing 2/3 innings in relief of Tyler Glasnow in Game 1. He allowed a pair of base hits in that contest, each of which brought home a run, but both were charged to Glasnow. It continued a less than stellar postseason for Yarbrough, who's allowed four runs in 10 2/3 innings, surrendered 11 hits and three walks, and struck out just six. His 3.38 ERA in the playoffs looks a lot better than his 6.85 FIP and 6.26 xFIP.

The Dodgers slugged just .442 against left-handed pitching in the regular season compared to .498 against righties, but those splits have changed drastically in the playoffs. L.A.'s lineup is slashing .282/.388/.532 against southpaws since the start of the postseason and .236/.331/.422 against right-handed pitching.

Given Yarbrough's effectiveness to this point, the fact he's pitching on short rest, and the Dodgers' playoff success against left-handers so far, this is shaping up to be something of a shorter outing for him. Tampa's bullpen should see plenty of work, with manager Kevin Cash recognizing the importance of avoiding a 3-1 series deficit. As a result, we'll stick to the first five innings rather than playing the full-game over, eliminating the risk of a strong Rays bullpen shutting the door.

Pick: First five innings over 4.5 (+105)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.