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The San Diego Padres (22-15) were already the most exciting team in baseball ahead of Monday's MLB trade deadline. They'd won 10 of their last 13 games and were five games back of the Dodgers for the best record in the majors. But, there was still a sizable gap between the Padres and their division rival.
So, with 24 games left in this short season, they made a splash in the trade market. And another. And another.
San Diego acquired nine new players by the time the dust settled, headlined by starter Mike Clevinger, closer Trevor Rosenthal, and red-hot catcher Austin Nola. Here's the full recap of players traded away and acquired by the team, not including players to be named later.
| Traded for | Traded away |
|---|---|
| Mike Clevinger | Cal Quantrill |
| Trevor Rosenthal | Josh Naylor |
| Austin Nola | Austin Hedges |
| Jason Castro | Edward Olivares |
| Mitch Moreland | Luis Torrens |
| Greg Allen | Ty France |
| Austin Adams | Andres Munoz |
| Dan Altavilla | Gerardo Reyes |
| Taylor Williams | Taylor Trammell (minors) |
| Gabriel Arias (minors) | |
| Hudson Potts (minors) | |
| Joey Cantillo (minors) | |
| Owen Miller (minors) | |
| Jeisson Rosario (minors) |
As of Tuesday morning, the Padres owned the 10th-shortest price to win the World Series (+1800) and the fifth-shortest to win the National League (+800) at theScore Bet. Is their recent success for real? And do Monday's deals make them a must-buy at their current price?
A surprise contender
There's no question the Padres are better today than they were a few days ago. But here's the dirty secret: they were worth betting then, too.
Entering Monday, San Diego's bats were easily the best in baseball by nearly every measure. They led the league in wOBA (.350) and runs scored (205) while pacing every expected batting metric, per Statcast. They also hit the ball as hard as any team in the majors, for good measure.
Nothing exemplifies the Friars' success at the plate more than the red-hot stretch in August when they hit a grand slam in four consecutive games to sweep the Rangers. It was the first time in MLB history a team managed that feat, and all four shots came from a different hitter - which speaks to the ridiculous depth of San Diego's lineup.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been arguably the best player in baseball this season, leading all players in fWAR (2.5) and tied for the most home runs (13). Manny Machado has finally come alive, hitting .376 with a 1.220 OPS over his last 22 games. Even utility man Jake Cronenworth has been a revelation at the dish, ranking in the 99th percentile or better in xBA (.403), xSLG (.737), and xwOBA (.493).
To put into context how nasty this lineup has been, consider that Eric Hosmer has been the team's fifth-best bat this year despite a .910 OPS, which would rank 35th among qualified hitters.
San Diego's rotation needed more help than its lineup, but its starters still rank seventh in ERA (3.72) with legit front-line talent even before Monday's moves. Dinelson Lamet has followed up his breakout 2019 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.939 WHIP this season, while Chris Paddack still has ace potential after a promising rookie year.
Despite the career resurgence of reliever Drew Pomeranz, who's been nearly flawless this year, the Padres' bullpen has been an issue through the first half of the season. That changes with this week's deals, turning San Diego from a contender with holes into a well-built juggernaut.
Closing the gap
Start with Clevinger, the crown jewel of the trade deadline. Before Monday's transactions, the Padres relied on four primary starters with a rotating cast for the fifth spot. That's no longer an issue with the former Indians ace helping San Diego establish a clear playoff trio.
For as deep as the Padres' lineup is, one significant weak spot was at catcher, where Austin Hedges and Francisco Mejia combined to hit .126 in 95 at-bats. Adding Nola - who's slashing .306/.373/.531 this year - and veteran Jason Castro turns a weakness into a potential strength. The same goes for Mitch Moreland (.310/.410/.704), who brings stability to the Padres' inconsistent DH spot.
Pomeranz has been brilliant in relief this year, but his recent IL stint emphasized how thin the bullpen was without last year's saves leader Kirby Yates. Insert Rosenthal, the inconsistent but hard-throwing righty who seems to have rediscovered his elite strikeout upside this season.
Even the smaller moves make a difference. Outside of one awful start against San Diego, Taylor Williams was effective this year as the Mariners' closer and is an overqualified third arm out of San Diego's pen. Greg Allen is a solid fifth outfielder for his hometown team.
More importantly, the Padres didn't give up any notable players in their quest for a 2020 championship run, making their title odds even more attractive after the deadline.
Should you bet the Padres?
After Monday's deadline, Fangraphs gives San Diego a 98.9% chance of making the playoffs and the second-best chances (9%) of winning the World Series - which equates to roughly 10-1 odds in implied odds.
Sure, you can't get the same value as when the Padres entered the season as 40-1 long shots, but it's better to swing a bit late than watch this one pass by you. At this stage of the season, an 18-1 price on one of the best teams in baseball is a bet you can't afford to miss.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
