MLB plays of the day: Hart in trouble vs. Blue Jays
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Nothing tastes sweeter than perfection. We went 2-for-2 on our MLB bets Monday with a pair of easy unders, and a quartet of ace-level pitchers leading the way.
Here are our favorite picks for Tuesday's slate.
Boston Red Sox (+105) at Toronto Blue Jays (-125)
Starting pitchers: Kyle Hart (0-1, 11.12 ERA) vs. Chase Anderson (0-0, 2.79 ERA)
Hart might be the league's worst starting pitcher this season. Don't believe me? His ERA is tied for the fifth-highest of any starter with five-plus innings pitched, and his WHIP (2.82) is tied for the worst among that bunch. He's walking an absurd 25% of the batters he faces, in part because nearly 54% of his pitches are outside of the zone.
Hart has also produced one of MLB's worst ground-ball rates (26.3%). That won't do him any favors at Sahlen Field, which is among the most hitter-friendly ballparks this season. The Blue Jays have registered the league's fourth-lowest ground-ball rate (39.9%) and the highest OPS at home (.968), which should lead to a field day against the Red Sox rookie.
That wouldn't be an issue if Boston's bats could keep up, but the team's order ranks near the bottom in nearly every expected batting metric. Anderson hasn't been particularly sharp for Toronto, though he's yet to allow more than one run in his five short starts. He should provide just enough to support his offense in this one.
Pick: Blue Jays (-125)
Cincinnati Reds (-105) at Milwaukee Brewers (-115)
Starting pitchers: Luis Castillo (0-3, 4.44 ERA) vs. Brandon Woodruff (1-2, 3.23 ERA)
No pitcher has experienced more rotten luck this year than Castillo. Only Shane Bieber (1.74) has posted a better FIP than the Reds' 2019 All-Star (2.04), who owns MLB's fourth-highest swinging-strike rate (16.1%) with just one home run allowed.
An inflated .403 BABIP has sullied Castillo's counting stats, resulting in the second-biggest gap between ERA and FIP of any qualified starter. Yet he's still allowed three-plus earned runs just once this year through five starts. Now Castillo gets to face a free-swinging Brewers lineup that ranks second in whiff rate (30.5%) and fifth in strikeout rate (26%).
And then there's Woodruff, another unlucky ace with impressive strikeout totals and an uninspiring ERA. He ran into trouble against Minnesota during his last start, but Woodruff had recorded a sterling 1.05 WHIP in his previous five appearances, which would rank among the top pitchers over the full season.
Better days are ahead for a capable Reds lineup, but Cincinnati simply isn't hitting the ball well right now after plating four runs over the team's last three games. Milwaukee hasn't been much better over the past week, meaning a pitcher's duel is on the horizon.
Pick: Under 8 (-105)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.