MLB plays of the day: Minor on verge of collapse vs. Mariners
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As we expected, Steven Matz and Robbie Ray were both shellacked in Monday's MLB action, though we split our picks thanks to the Diamondbacks' offensive surge. Speaking of which ...
Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) at Colorado Rockies (-115)
Starting pitchers: Zac Gallen (0-0, 2.81 ERA) vs. Kyle Freeland (2-0, 2.41 ERA)
A day after these two teams combined for 20 runs, this matchup is screaming under with a sky-high total of 11. The under is 9-3-1 this season when a total is 11 or higher and 10-3 in the last 13 games at Coors Field. Neither Gallen nor Freeland is vulnerable enough to threaten those marks Tuesday.
Freeland is keeping the ball in the park this season after years of struggling with his command and opposing power. The former eighth overall pick has allowed just two home runs and six walks, and he's been especially effective at home, boasting a 2.13 ERA with one homer allowed in 12 2/3 innings.
Gallen has been hit hard this year but is striking out even more batters (11.8 per nine innings) than he did in his prolific rookie season in 2019. The young Diamondbacks pitcher also rarely lets a start get out of hand. He's gone at least five innings in 15 of his 18 career outings, and he's never allowed more than three runs in a start.
The Rockies are 9-2-1 to the under in Freeland's last 12 starts; Gallen's teams are 14-2-2 to the under in his career. Don't expect either to fall apart Tuesday, and with such a high total, there's plenty of wiggle room to survive an under in Colorado.
Pick: Under 11 (-115)
Seattle Mariners (+120) at Texas Rangers (-140)
Starting pitchers: Marco Gonzales (2-1, 3.06 ERA) vs. Mike Minor (0-3, 6.89 ERA)
Minor is on the verge of a major collapse. After a solid debut on July 25, the 32-year-old was rocked in his second start and was pulled Thursday after his fastball dropped roughly 4 mph from the first inning to the fifth. His velocity has dipped on all four of his primary pitches this year, resulting in sharp increases in his hard-hit rate (36.7%) and barrel rate allowed (8.2%).
He'll likely be on a pitch count Tuesday, which means the Rangers will have to rely heavily on one of baseball's worst bullpens. Texas' relievers have produced MLB's second-worst hard-hit rate (47.8%) this season and rank among the bottom 10 in ERA (5.19), FIP (4.51), and SIERA (4.17).
The Mariners' lineup is below average at best, but it's still performed better than the Rangers' bats in nearly every relevant statistic. Texas also has the seventh-worst strikeout rate against lefties (26.4%) ahead of a matchup with the southpaw Gonzales, who has rung up a combined 13 batters with just one walk in two straight quality starts.
There isn't a lot of justification for the Rangers to be favored here. Seattle has been profitable this year as an underdog and is well worth a bet Tuesday.
Pick: Mariners (+120)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.