MLB hits leader odds: Can Merrifield make it 3 straight years?

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

If there's baseball this summer, it'll come during a significantly shortened season, which could lead to value on volume-based prop bets. Today, we'll break down the best bets to be MLB's hits leader, which has been a surprisingly consistent market in recent years.

In the last 21 seasons, the hits leader has come from the American League an astounding 19 times, with the magic number hovering around 210 hits over the previous decade. Whit Merrifield has won the crown in back-to-back seasons and is the co-favorite this campaign. Can he make it three straight?

Here are the 25 players with the shortest odds to lead MLB in hits this season, with a few names to target as early values:

Whit Merrifield (+1300)

Here's why it's worth laying the short price on a proven commodity. In the last 10 years, the hits leader recorded an average of .300 or higher the previous season, and of the last 19 players to cash this prop, 15 of them had been an All-Star at some point.

Two of those four exceptions during that stretch came from Merrifield, who earned his first All-Star nod in 2019 after consecutive seasons hitting over .300 and, of course, leading MLB in hits both years. This market rewards proven production, and no player in the field is a surer bet to produce than Merrifield.

Charlie Blackmon (+2400)

Blackmon is the last player not named Merrifield to lead the majors in hits, registering 213 hits in 2017 while finishing with a .331 average. He's totaled 182 hits each of the last two years as his at-bats have dipped, in part from the Rockies moving him around the order. If he can secure his spot atop the order, Blackmon's long odds are even more intriguing.

He hit .314 a year ago with a career-best hard-hit rate (40.3%) and zone-swing rate (70.8%), so the potential is there for Blackmon to put up league-leading numbers once again. And with two Silver Slugger awards on his resume (2016 and 2017), Blackmon has the credentials to push Merrifield aside. Of the last 19 hits leaders, 10 had won a Silver Slugger.

ESPN's stat projections peg Blackmon for 171 hits in 2020, third behind co-favorites Merrifield (175) and teammate Nolan Arenado (172). While Merrifield is the field's safest bet, Blackmon might be the best value given his upside and pedigree.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+3400)

Of the four players over the last 19 years to lead the league in hits without previously earning an All-Star nod, two of them were coming off Rookie of the Year campaigns. Tatis isn't, so betting him here is admittedly a gamble, albeit one that his statistical profile suggests is worth making.

In 2019, the Padres rookie hit .317 over 84 games, the ninth-highest average for anyone with 300-plus at-bats. That would have translated to a league-leading 216 hits if he'd logged as many at-bats as Merrifield. His BABIP in 2019 (.410) was the third-highest since 1925 from a player with 300-plus at-bats. That's cause for major regression concern, but Tatis' speed and low infield velocity often lead to a higher average on balls in play.

Even with his strong 2019 line, his so-so contact rates leave room for improvement, which could be a positive sign for Tatis' average in 2020. Despite the regression fears, it's worth chasing value on a clear high-upside talent like Tatis, especially after the numbers he put up a year ago.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.