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Yesterday, we broke down three American League pitchers worth backing frequently this season.
These are boring, unsexy hurlers who might lack star appeal but offer discounted prices that ultimately result in a significant return on investment.
Here are three guys to target in the National League.
Brett Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers
It's rare to find value on a starting pitcher with Anderson's consistency. He's far from the flashiest guy on the mound - see last season's 4.60 K/9 rate - but what he lacks in excitement he more than makes up for in efficiency. You know what you're going to get when he takes the hill: five or six innings of one-to-three-run ball. In other words, the Brewers will be in every game.
Anderson pitched for the Oakland Athletics last season, with his old club posting a 20-11 record in games that he started. Given that the 32-year-old lacks star power, his average line on the season was just -121. The A's were an impressive 10-3 as underdogs in games Anderson started, with his consistent outings regularly putting them in a position to win.
Dakota Hudson, St. Louis Cardinals
Hudson enjoyed an impressive rookie campaign, cementing himself as a reliable figure in the Cardinals' rotation. The 25-year-old provided rare volume for a first-year pitcher, throwing over 170 innings in 32 starts. He's boring in the sense that he doesn't miss many bats, but Hudson is a ground-ball machine. He stranded a lot of baserunners with a 78.1 LOB% (top 15 in MLB), largely thanks to a league-leading ground-ball percentage of 56.9.
He'll continue to be viewed as an unproven commodity due to his high WHIP and FIP. Hudson's underlying numbers will never be impressive, so he'll constantly have to prove himself.
This results in some significant value in the betting market. The Cardinals had an average line of just -113 in games Hudson started. They went 22-11 in those contests (a $990 profit for the $100 bettor). They were also 21-12 on the run line in those games (another $800 in profits). Don't be afraid to pay the short price when Hudson's on the mound, as the Cards posted a 13-3 record as favorites when he pitched.
Marcus Stroman, New York Mets
When you're part of a rotation that boasts Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, it's easy to be overlooked. The Mets flourished with Stroman on the bump after acquiring him from the Toronto Blue Jays last season, posting an 8-3 record in games he started. His ground-ball percentage of 53.7 (fourth-best in MLB) was a key factor.
Stroman can always be had at a discount. He saw an average line of just -126 with the Mets last season and just -112 overall in 2019. He's never going to post the strikeout numbers or carry the same name appeal as guys like deGrom and Syndergaard, but that works in our favor.
The Mets were just 14-18 with deGrom starting last season, with an average line of -176, and they were 19-13 with Syndergaard on the hill, with an average line of -142. Stroman can be had for fractions of those prices despite being a very efficient and capable pitcher.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
