Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
You've probably heard it a million times, but numbers don't always tell the whole story. As much as statistics drive lines, public perception certainly has its influence.
This season, be smarter than your friend who's quick to the window to lay -190 on Jacob deGrom. You'll never get a discount betting on a Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander.
To ensure a profitable season, look to boring, unsexy pitchers who aren't flashy but are efficient. Those are the guys who offer good value and, ultimately, a better return on investment.
Mike Fiers, Oakland Athletics
How is a guy who goes 15-4 with a sub-4.00 ERA undervalued? It's because there's nothing showy about Fiers. The 34-year-old is a vanilla pitcher - he doesn't turn heads, strike out many batters, or throw particularly hard. What he does is win.
The Athletics were 21-11 last season in games that Friers started, with an average line of just -119. That's alarmingly small for a team that finished with 97 wins. Incredibly, six Oakland pitchers had shorter average lines, including Homer Bailey, Chris Bassitt, and Tanner Roark. In 2018, Fiers' average line was +122, and his teams (the Athletics and Detroit Tigers) were 21-9 in those games, making him the most profitable starter in Major League Baseball. As long as oddsmakers keep disrespecting Fiers, you should continue to take advantage.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox
It might be strange to see a guy on the periphery of the Cy Young conversation making a list of undervalued pitchers, but Rodriguez wasn't even inside the top 20 in shortest average lines last season despite the Red Sox posting a 25-8 record in games he started.
Rodriguez is a true ace but still isn't priced as such. With the baseball world down on the Red Sox this season, we should again be able to get him at a discount compared to guys like deGrom (the New York Mets went 17-17 in games he started last season) and Jack Flaherty (the St. Louis Cardinals were 17-19 in his starts).
E-Rod has been the most profitable starter in MLB over the last two seasons, as the Red Sox are an incredible 45-12 in his starts over that span. If you had bet $100 on Boston every time Rodriguez had taken the mound, you would have made a remarkable $2,863. Fiers is second on the list at +$2,853.
Matt Shoemaker, Toronto Blue Jays
An injury-shortened 2019 season means the sample size is small, but the Blue Jays were a perfect 5-0 in games that Shoemaker started, with an average line of +112. The former Los Angeles Angels starter enjoyed a terrific start to life in Toronto before an ACL tear abruptly ended his campaign.
He's healthy coming into 2020 and backed by a potent lineup. Given that he's 33 and coming off a major injury, he'll hardly strike fear into oddsmakers. However, he's good enough to give the Blue Jays a chance in every game he pitches and should be offered at a significant discount, especially early in the year.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
