Fantasy: Players in new homes

Players change teams every winter, and while they don't become different players as a result, it does change their fantasy season outlook.

While Mookie Betts' move to L.A. and Gerrit Cole's transition to the Bronx will grab the headlines, there's no sense in discussing them here, since both are locks to go in the first round regardless of which team they play for.

Irrespective of expected success or regression compared to 2019 for other reasons, here's a list of six players - three risers and three fallers - whose stock has changed based on their offseason move.

Average draft positions are from FantasyPros as of March 11.

All stats for 2020 projections are from FanGraphs.

Josh Donaldson, 3B - Riser (ADP: 90)

Atlanta Braves to Minnesota Twins

At 34, Donaldson is reaching a point in his career where a drop-off starts to feel inevitable. With his injuries piling up near the end of his Blue Jays tenure in 2017-18, it appeared as if his decline had already arrived.

On a one-year, prove-it deal with the Braves, "The Bringer of Rain" returned to form, and he enters an even more favorable situation by moving to the Twins. While Minnesota doesn't feature a hitter with the broad toolset of Ronald Acuna Jr. or the steady floor of Freddie Freeman, the Twins set a major-league record for home runs in 2019. Presumably, Donaldson will bat in the middle of their lineup, giving him ample opportunity to drive in runs and to score.

If he's dropping to 90th in drafts, he's an absolute steal based on his projected production in possibly the most potent offense in the game.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP - Faller (ADP: 119)

Los Angeles Dodgers to Toronto Blue Jays

Betting on Ryu to repeat as ERA champ was always going to be a risky wager. On one hand, the left-hander has shown a penchant for limiting runs, despite merely above-average peripheral numbers. Since the beginning of 2018, only Jacob deGrom has authored a better ERA among pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched.

However, deGrom has thrown 150 more innings over that span. Of the nine starters with a sub-3.00 ERA since the beginning of 2018 with a minimum of 150 IP, Ryu has thrown the fewest frames and is just one of two that hasn't reached the 300-inning plateau - Blake Snell is the other at 287 2/3 innings. Even further, all of those pitchers strike out at least one batter per inning other than Ryu, with most of them posting a 10 K/9 or better.

Now, Ryu's challenge will be outperforming his peripherals while also making a very difficult leap from the best team in the NL West to a middling team in the AL East - where the hitters are better and the ballparks are less spacious. The margin for error has shrunk substantially for the 32-year-old lefty. You could probably save yourself some anguish and take Max Fried, Lance Lynn, Jesus Luzardo, Zac Gallen, or Dinelson Lamet in the following round.

Nick Castellanos, OF - Riser (ADP: 94)

Chicago Cubs to Cincinnati Reds

Castellanos has made his reputation as a solid hitter without ever playing his home games in a pure hitters park. He led the majors with 58 doubles in 2019, and he was the Cubs' best hitter after a midseason trade from the Tigers. In 51 games with Chicago, he hit .321 with 16 home runs and 36 RBIs.

The 28-year-old is joining a Reds team on the rise that features a ton of lineup protection, including fellow offseason addition Mike Moustakas.

The projections are relatively conservative, which may represent the public perception of Castellanos as an unsexy name - and he will not be a fantastic option in OBP leagues based on his generally low walk rate. But he's consistently made contact despite his free-swinging ways. Castellanos hasn't posted a K% above 25 since 2015 and he was in the top 20 for lowest soft-contact rate in 2019.

Yasiel Puig, OF - Faller (ADP: 158)

Cleveland Indians to Free Agency

It's honestly astounding to still see the unemployed Puig going 158th. Even if he was signed, picking a more certain performer like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. over Puig seems like a good bet. Even taking Kyle Tucker and banking on his ceiling seems smarter. If neither of them appeals to you, Hunter Dozier is going roughly two rounds later and should definitely be taken over Puig.

Regardless, going this long without resolving his 2020 status only hurts the outfielder's value. Signing mid-spring hurt Bryce Harper and Manny Machado's performances last year, and signing midseason seemed to hurt Craig Kimbrel as well. If bona fide stars can diminish as a result of long free agencies, Puig can too.

Even if Puig signs this week in the most favorable situation imaginable to him, there's just too much risk here. And, honestly, the way his free agency has gone, it wouldn't be surprising to see him have to settle for an unfavorable situation that hurts his playing time.

Kenta Maeda, SP - Riser (ADP: 170)

Los Angeles Dodgers to Minnesota Twins

For years, the only knock against Maeda - in fantasy and in real life - was the fact that the Dodgers aggressively use their depth to create and prevent as many runs as possible every single game. That means Joc Pederson sees barely any playing time against left-handers. That has also meant Maeda would get shoved in the bullpen if the relief corps needed help.

Now with the Twins, the shackles are off Maeda and the results could be remarkable. Not only will he start every fifth day for a team that will appreciate and need his arm in the rotation, but he'll pitch for the best team in the worst division. He may allow more home runs in his move to the AL, but Target Field is at least spacious - not unlike Dodger Stadium. Not to mention, there's a clear dearth of pop in any of the opposing AL Central lineups - even Cleveland's.

Right now, Maeda is going two rounds after Robbie Ray and David Price and one round after Julio Urias and Matthew Boyd. All four of those pitchers have substantially more bust potential and none of them will help you in all five pitching categories the way Maeda will.

Will Smith, RP - Faller (ADP: 229)

San Francisco Giants to Atlanta Braves

In real-world terms, Smith improves the Braves' bullpen exponentially. The knock against him in fantasy is simply that he won't get enough save opportunities. At least, not at first.

If incumbent closer Mark Melancon stumbles, it will be Smith's time to shine. But unless your league covers saves and holds (as it increasingly should), there's no reason to pick Smith until the last round despite his solid numbers apart from saves.

Should Smith go undrafted, put him on your watchlist because his status could change, but Melancon's reputation as perpetually being on shaky ground is somewhat overstated. Injuries derailed the bulk of his Giants tenure - also alongside Smith - but last year, he returned to form. Melancon's 3.61 ERA wasn't amazing, but he did manage a 2.86 FIP while throwing 67 1/3 innings. And once he joined Atlanta, he just stopped issuing free passes.

So yes, Melancon could give way to Smith either by struggling or through injury, but it's not nearly as sure of a proposition as one might guess.