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The Oakland Athletics are no strangers to this do-or-die stage, having played (and lost) in the AL wild-card game in 2014 and again in 2018. This year, they get home-field advantage against a Tampa Bay Rays team riding five straight wins from Cy Young contender and Wednesday starter Charlie Morton.
The Athletics were mum on their starter until Tuesday afternoon, when they tabbed lefty Sean Manaea to take the mound after he allowed just four runs through 29 2/3 innings in September. He'll have the support of an Oakland lineup that posted September's second-best WAR, according to FanGraphs, though the A's could run into trouble against Morton and the Rays' stellar bullpen.
Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective:
Line movement
The game opened with Oakland as a -142 favorite, according to Sports Insights, but moved in Tampa Bay's favor while the Athletics were deliberating between Manaea and righty Mike Fiers. The A's reopened at -140 at theScore Bet in New Jersey. The total sits at 8, with the under priced at -120.
Betting trends
The Athletics have been stellar on the moneyline this year, netting $2,331 on $100 bets with a 40-20 record as home favorites (+$898 return), according to Sports Database. Though Oakland boasts top-five power numbers on the year, it closed the season with six straight unders and nine in its last 11, holding opponents to an average of 2.27 runs during that stretch.
Manaea was lights-out in September, leading the A's to four straight wins and four unders in his last five games. Tampa Bay enters Wednesday with four unders in its final five contests, though it did post 10 straight overs as a road 'dog.
The Rays were 20-10 (+$361) in Morton's starts this season. They were also generally profitable as road 'dogs, going 14-12 (+$368) overall and 3-2 (+$38) with Morton on the mound. He's 1-1 against the Athletics in 2019; Manaea has yet to face Tampa Bay this year.
A word of advice to those picking the side: Betting home favorites of -140 or less has been a losing proposition (-$740) in the last 10 postseasons, and bets on road 'dogs shorter than +120 haven't fared much better (-$263).
The X-factor
The Rays' offseason decision to invest $30 million in an aging Morton has clearly paid dividends for both sides. The 35-year-old posted career bests in ERA (3.05), fielding-independent pitching (2.81), WHIP (1.085), and strikeouts per nine (11.1) during the regular season, ranking in the top five among MLB pitchers in each category while leading the majors in home runs allowed per nine (0.694).
Morton's kept his fastball usage under 50% in 2019, according to FanGraphs, relying instead on off-speed pitches such as his curveball (37.3%) and cutter (10.5%). That could be bad news for an A's lineup that feasted on fastballs but ranked 16th in the majors in runs created per curveball and cutter faced.
Pick
With Manaea primed to stymie a Rays team that struggled against lefties this year, the question is whether Morton can do the same against the Athletics' potent lineup. His profile suggests trouble for Oakland's bats, setting up a low-scoring Wednesday affair.
The under is the safe bet thanks to two capable pitchers. But if you have to take a side, there could be some value betting on a comfortable A's win: Playoff home favorites have been woeful bets on the moneyline in the last two years, but they're 28-24 (+$1,135) on the run line over that span and the Rays will likely struggle to find runs on the road against Manaea.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
