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Backed by a lethal 1-2-3 punch at the front end of their starting rotation, the Washington Nationals enter October as a popular pick to be a World Series dark horse. However, nothing will come easy for them against baseball's hottest team, the Milwaukee Brewers.
No club has won more games in September than the Brewers. Their World Series odds plummeted from 30-1 to 200-1 following Christian Yelich's season-ending injury, but the Brew Crew rallied together to post an outstanding 14-2 record after losing the reigning NL MVP before being swept in Colorado to close out the season.
Here's everything you need to know about the wild-card matchup from a betting perspective:
Line movement
With household name Max Scherzer toeing the rubber for the Nationals, they'll be a popular public play to kick off the postseason. They opened as -180 favorites, with the line hardly budging as of Monday. For those confident in the road underdog, there's good value with the Brewers hovering around +160.
Betting trends
Road teams are 5-2 since the introduction of the NL wild-card game, though this is the first wild-card appearance for both the Nationals and Brewers. However, Milwaukee does have recent experience in one-off games, beating the Chicago Cubs 3-1 at Wrigley Field in an NL Central tiebreaker last year. The Brewers finished last postseason 3-2 on the road, including the tiebreaker, without a single one of those contests going over the total. The Nationals, meanwhile, are 3-8 at home in the playoffs since 2012.
Scherzer will be on the hill for Washington and is hoping to buck a disappointing playoff trend. He's 0-4 in his last seven postseason games, while his teams (the Nationals and Detroit Tigers) are 0-7 in those contests. He's going to need to find his form in a hurry after posting a 5.16 ERA over 29 2/3 innings in September, with his last scoreless start coming all the way back on July 6 against the Kansas City Royals. Despite giving up just one earned run over six innings, he lost his only start against the Brewers this season, though Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain are a combined 0-for-29 against Scherzer lifetime.
Getting the ball for the Brewers is Brandon Woodruff, though his outing shouldn't be an especially long one as he makes just his third start back after missing two months with an oblique injury. He didn't allow a run in either of those appearances but only threw a combined four innings. Woodruff won his only other start against the Nationals this season, tossing six frames of one-run ball with nine strikeouts, but that game came at Miller Park. He has a 4.41 ERA on the road this season, compared to a 3.06 mark in Milwaukee.
The X-factor
With Woodruff unable to match Scherzer's ability to pitch deep into the game, a lot of pressure is going to fall on Milwaukee's bullpen, which should have the confidence of manager Craig Counsell. Drew Pomeranz will likely be called upon at one point, and he's been filthy since being acquired by the Brewers, posting a 2.39 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 45 Ks, and just three walks in 26 1/3 innings. Brent Suter has been equally impressive since returning from Tommy John surgery, allowing just one run over 18 1/3 innings this season, with a 15:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
And then there's Josh Hader. One of the best relievers in baseball, Hader hit a bit of a rough patch in August, culminating in a blown save against the Nationals. He allowed the first four batters to reach but struck out the next three to escape a none-out, bases-loaded jam. That effort seemed to turn his season around as he hasn't allowed a run in 14 of his 16 relief appearances since that night, and has recorded 31 strikeouts and just three walks in his last 18 innings. Hader could be the key to any playoff success the Brewers may have in October, much like Andrew Miller was to the Cleveland Indians in 2016.
Pick
The Brewers continue to be written off despite the team rallying together in the wake of Yelich's injury, while the Nationals are a trendy dark-horse pick once again despite a disappointing postseason track record. Woodruff should be able to give Milwaukee a few innings of quality pitching before turning things over to a white-hot bullpen. Scherzer hasn't looked his dominant self over the past month, despite a typically high K/9 rate, and it's hard to justify laying this kind of juice considering his poor playoff record in Washington. There's plenty of value on the Brewers as they set out to continue to defy expectations.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
