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Vital questions for each playoff team

Photo illustration by Nick Roy / theScore

With the 2019 postseason set to begin Tuesday at Nationals Park, Jonah Birenbaum, theScore's senior MLB writer, explores one vital question facing each playoff team.

National League

Los Angeles Dodgers

RECORD RUN DIFFERENTIAL RECORD VS. WAS/MIL
106-56 +273 4-3 vs. both

Which Cody Bellinger shows up in October?

The Dodgers' seeming indomitability be damned, it's disconcerting how markedly Cody Bellinger's production dropped off over the final six weeks of the season, as the 24-year-old superstar managed a modest .824 OPS from Aug. 21 onward. That's not bad, per se, but it's a far cry from the .317/.414/.667 slash line he put up through his first 123 games of 2019 as he positioned himself as a co-favorite for the National League MVP award.

His recent slide can't be blamed on bad luck, either: Bellinger's expected weighted on-base average has fallen almost 100 points since the final week of August amid a significant decline in exit velocity. He just hasn't been squaring the ball up like he was earlier in the season, which means Bellinger now has to rediscover his stroke while also trying to dispel his reputation as a postseason liability.

Over the past two Octobers, Bellinger has eked out a dreadful .172/.226/.336 slash line in 31 games. The former NL Rookie of the Year was effectively confined to a platoon role last postseason, starting only 11 of his club's 16 contests. Of course, the Dodgers are so ridiculously talented they can probably win a third straight NL pennant without Bellinger at the top of his game. But they likely can't knock off the Astros or Yankees - and snap their 31-year championship drought - with anything less than outsized production from their best player.

Atlanta Braves

RECORD RUN DIFFERENTIAL RECORD VS. STL
97-65 +112 4-2

Who fills out the rotation?

Mike Soroka will be in the Braves' postseason rotation. So will Dallas Keuchel. After those two, it's unclear who starts for Atlanta in the National League Division Series (and beyond). Assuming he opts for four traditional starters, manager Brian Snitker has three comparably deserving - and uninspiring - options for those last two spots.

Max Fried may actually be the Braves' second-best starter after finishing behind only Soroka for the team lead in FIP (3.78), but Snitker could defensibly dispatch him to the bullpen as another left-handed relief option alongside Sean Newcomb. Julio Teheran, the club's longest-tenured starter, also has a decent case to crack the rotation, but his 3.81 ERA belies his lousy peripheral numbers (4.67 FIP, 5.27 xFIP). He also hasn't looked particularly sharp lately, stumbling to an 11.12 ERA while allowing five home runs over his final three starts.

Finally, there's Mike Foltynewicz. Making just 21 starts this season due to injury and a midseason demotion to Triple-A, the hard-throwing right-hander had the most volatile year of any Braves starter but was arguably their best pitcher down the stretch. Foltynewicz crafted a 2.65 ERA in 10 starts after returning from the minors on Aug. 6, recording 55 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .626 OPS over 57 2/3 innings. The Braves won all but one of those 10 starts, too. A tough decision looms for Snitker.

St. Louis Cardinals

RECORD RUN DIFFERENTIAL RECORD VS. ATL
91-71 +102 2-4

Is Kolten Wong healthy?

A hamstring strain sidelined Kolten Wong during the season's final week-and-a-half, and the beleaguered second baseman said Sunday he's still hesitant to run hard. As such, it seems increasingly likely Wong will be a limited participant in the NLDS - if he's included on the roster, which is hardly a fait accompli. It's a significant blow to the Cardinals after Wong's turnaround largely fueled their second-half surge. After stumbling through a pedestrian first half, Wong slashed .342/.409/.487 in 62 games following the All-Star break, outhitting every other Cardinals regular and notching more WAR (2.4) than all except rookie Tommy Edman.

If Wong is unable to play or is limited to pinch-hit duties for the division series, Edman will likely fill in at second base with Matt Carpenter playing third. Though that may seem like a pretty good contingency plan, Carpenter endured a miserable season at the plate, managing his worst OPS (.726) and OPS+ (91) since becoming an everyday player in 2012. The Cardinals are undoubtedly a better defensive team with Wong out there, too.

Washington Nationals

RECORD RUN DIFFERENTIAL RECORD VS. MIL
93-69 +149 2-4

Can the bullpen hold up?

Rarely does a team make it into the playoffs without even one reliable reliever on the roster, so kudos to the Nationals and perhaps the worst bullpen in the majors this year. Washington's relievers managed a collective 5.68 ERA in 2019 - only the pitiful Baltimore Orioles were worse - and amassed 0.9 WAR, less than anonymous Kansas City Royals middle reliever Scott Barlow managed individually.

The Nationals endured more blown saves than every team except the Oakland Athletics and Boston Red Sox. They posted the fewest shutdowns in the majors. No team's bullpen allowed a higher percentage of inherited runners to score. And their ostensible rock, Sean Doolittle, has scuffled badly since the All-Star break, and even lost out on some stretch-run save opportunities to newcomer Daniel Hudson.

It's true the Nationals are uniquely equipped to minimize their bullpen's impact in the postseason thanks to Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin. At some point, though, they're going to need some big outs from their relievers. That's more than a little troubling given that Washington's "best" reliever is ... Hudson? Doolittle? Honestly, it could even be Wander Suero. Or Javy Guerra. Or Fernando Rodney. Should the bullpen falter this October - assuming the Nationals can get past the Brewers - it's not going to be Dave Martinez's fault.

Milwaukee Brewers

RECORD RUN DIFFERENTIAL RECORD VS. WAS
89-73 +3 4-2

Who's going to provide the offense?

Losing Christian Yelich was supposed to be the death knell for Milwaukee's postseason hopes. Instead, the Brewers were unstoppable after losing their venerated right fielder, going 13-2 until being swept in Colorado on the final weekend of the season. The run, though, was thanks to a suddenly lights-out pitching staff and a supremely soft schedule. As expected, the offense flatlined in Yelich's absence. The team collectively hit just .226/.318./417 down the stretch, producing a worse wRC+ (90) than the Orioles and Royals. The Brewers need much more if they're to realistically contend for a World Series. It's debatable, frankly, if they could do that with Yelich.

Even the most masterful bullpen management from Craig Counsell can't sustain the pitching staff's recent outsized success: The Brewers' assemblage of anonymous hurlers had an MLB-best 2.19 ERA from when Yelich went down until the start of the final series, holding opponents to a .179 average while allowing only 1.0 home runs per nine innings. Three straight bullpen explosions in Colorado set those marks on fire, though, so the offense is going to have to pick it up. Who provides that offense is anyone's guess: Beyond rookie Keston Hiura, no Brewers players qualify as impact hitters, and the lineup remains bogged down with multiple black holes.

American League

Houston Astros

RECORD RUN DIFFERENTIAL RECORD VS. OAK/TB
107-55 +280 11-8 vs. Oak / 3-4 vs. TB

Can they just not choke?

With all due respect to the Yankees and Dodgers, this is the Astros' championship to lose. They're essentially perfect. They have the second-best offense of the live-ball era by wRC+ (125), trailing only a 1927 New York Yankees squad that featured Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. The Astros might also have the best single position player in the postseason in Alex Bregman, who managed a 1.015 OPS with 41 homers this season and accrued more WAR (8.4) than every player not named Mike Trout. Houston also has three legitimate aces in Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole - co-favorites for the American League Cy Young award - and Zack Greinke, whose 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP somehow pale in comparison to the numbers of the top two starters. Houston's bullpen is a formidable unit, too, with back-end studs like Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, and Will Harris contributing to a collective 3.75 ERA (second-best in the American League) and 1.20 WHIP (tied for tops in the AL).

The Astros have no flaws and won't face a team more talented than themselves this October. If they play as they did throughout the regular season, they'll be hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy in a few weeks' time.

New York Yankees

RECORD RUN DIFFERENTIAL RECORD VS. MIN
103-59 +204 4-2

Can Aaron Boone competently manage his staff?

Aaron Boone drew plenty of criticism for his dubious bullpen management in the Yankees' division series defeat a year ago. His tactical mettle will be tested even further this October. Given the Yankees' plan to piggyback their way through the games James Paxton doesn't start, Boone will play an outsized role in his club's playoff success - or failure - while navigating scenarios that never cropped up during the regular season.

Here's one for you: Let's say Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino are piggybacking in Game 2 of the ALDS after New York dropped the series opener to the Minnesota Twins. After three innings, the Yankees have a 4-0 lead and Tanaka has allowed just one baserunner. Does Boone leave in Tanaka, who struggled to navigate multiple trips through lineups this season? Given the strength and depth of his relief corps, does he turn it over to the bullpen and push Severino to Game 3? And what if the Twins tie it up in, say, the fifth? Does he then turn to Severino for a multi-inning stint, or save him for the next game?

The Yankees intend to plan ahead, but Boone will still have to do a ton of in-game improvising, which is precisely what he struggled with last October in his first year on the job.

Minnesota Twins

RECORD RUN DIFFERENTIAL RECORD VS. NYY
101-61 +185 2-4

Is the rotation good enough?

Michael Pineda's suspension didn't derail the Twins' division title run, but his absence looms large ahead of their first postseason series since 2010. Before getting slapped with a 60-game ban in early September, Pineda had been one of the game's top starters for more than two months: The resurgent right-hander authored a 2.96 ERA with 87 strikeouts in 82 innings over his final 14 starts of 2019. The Twins' rotation looks far less intimidating without him, particularly given the second-half struggles of Kyle Gibson (5.95 ERA) and Martin Perez (6.40 ERA).

At the moment, the Twins don't have any confidence-inspiring options beyond Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. Randy Dobnak has excelled since joining Minnesota's rotation in September, crafting a 1.86 ERA without allowing a home run in four starts, but the 24-year-old doesn't throw particularly hard or miss a ton of bats. He's also a rookie with fewer than 30 big-league innings under his belt. That profile doesn't exactly scream, "Start me in a postseason game against the Yankees." Same goes for Devin Smeltzer, another rookie who's shined as a September call-up.

No matter who's asked to fill out the rotation - Gibson will almost certainly start any Game 3 - the Twins are ultimately going to have to slug as they did all season to have a realistic chance this October.

Oakland Athletics

RECORD RUN DIFFERENTIAL RECORD VS. TB
97-65 +165 4-3

Who fills out the rotation?

Unlike last year, when they attempted to bullpen their way through the AL wild-card game, the Athletics head into the 2019 postseason with a bevy of decent starting options. Here's the thing, though: Oakland's prospective starters are virtually indistinguishable from one another, making the process of filling out a postseason rotation exceedingly difficult.

After Sean Manaea, the Athletics' back-from-the-dead ace who fashioned a 1.21 ERA (3.42 FIP) in five September starts, manager Bob Melvin could pretty much pick names out of a hat: Chris Bassitt, Brett Anderson, and Mike Fiers each accrued between 1.7 and 2.1 WAR this season. None posted an ERA below 3.81, and none posted an ERA above 3.90. None posted a FIP below 4.40, and none posted a FIP above 4.97. Homer Bailey, who managed a 4.30 ERA (3.65 FIP) over 13 starts after joining the A's at the trade deadline, isn't helping things, either.

A surplus of serviceable starters is a good problem to have; it allows for piggybacking and can take stress off the bullpen. But it also makes assigning roles difficult.

Tampa Bay Rays

RECORD RUN DIFFERENTIAL RECORD VS. OAK
96-66 +113 3-4

How much can Blake Snell contribute?

Sidelined for virtually the entire second half after undergoing elbow surgery, Snell made just three starts down the stretch and didn't throw more than 62 pitches in any of them. His fastball velocity hasn't fully returned since he rejoined the Rays on Sept. 17, either. Ultimately, his results - over an admittedly tiny sample - were mixed: The left-hander recorded 10 strikeouts and didn't allow a home run in six September innings, but he also issued five walks without inducing a single ground-ball out.

It's unlikely the reigning American League Cy Young winner will be able to pitch deep into games this postseason, and it wouldn't be surprising if manager Kevin Cash has him on a very short leash. It's true the Rays remained an elite run-preventing team in Snell's absence, and, yes, their unconventional bullpen management was designed to take pressure off the starters. It's nevertheless fair to wonder if the Rays can win the pennant without their best pitcher at full strength, especially with Houston's historically dominant offense waiting for them in the ALDS.

Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter @birenball.

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