This week, we take a deep dive into the maddening fantasy numbers Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant is producing, and also try to identify a handful of potential breakout candidates.
Then we wrap up with a few waiver wire options to monitor. Specifically, some pitchers to stream and a pair of prospects to stash.
Ownership percentages and season ranks courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy Sports. Numbers updated Sunday, May 5
So what is Kris Bryant in fantasy, anyway?
Reader Joey wrote in asking about a recent trade he made in his re-draft league. He received Xander Bogaerts and Michael Brantley for Wil Myers and Kris Bryant. Initially, the team getting Bryant seems like the clear winner, but that's probably not the case.
Bryant has become frustrating relative to his average draft position (32.3). That's not an indictment of his overall talent as a player. Instead, it's an assessment suggesting he provides more name value than practical value in five-category leagues.
Bryant was a force of nature when he debuted in 2015. He was even better the following year, hitting .292/.385/.554 with 39 home runs, 102 RBIs, 121 runs scored, and eight stolen bases en route to winning NL MVP and appearing to become a surefire bet for high-end fantasy production. Even his 2017 season was generally solid despite a statistical dip. He still hit for a high average (.295) as his power eroded to 29 homers.
A more worrying trend that season came from a lack of support. The Cubs' lineup was supposed to be daunting, and with Bryant in the middle of it, 100 RBIs seemed like an appropriate baseline. Instead, he drove in 73 runs that campaign over 151 plate appearances.
He was limited to 108 games in 2018 largely because of a lingering shoulder injury. Bryant struggled in every statistical category that season, including a career-worst .272 batting average and 13 homers in 457 plate appearances. So far, this season isn't starting off much better.
Through 29 games, Bryant is hitting .234/.371/.421 with three home runs, 15 RBIs, 20 runs scored, and one stolen base. That's not good enough for a player selected in the third round on average - including in theScore's mock draft. Washington Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon was taken later, and then he hit .356/.442/.740 with six home runs and 18 RBIs in 20 games before a late-April injury.
But Bryant's outlook might not be as bad as it appears, because poor luck could be burning him in the early going. His soft contact rate is at a career-low 12.2 percent (it was 18.9 last season), and while his 39.8 percent fly ball rate is a bit below the 27-year-old's norm, his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio is the lowest it's ever been. Factor all that in alongside his .266 batting average on balls in play, and Bryant may be the victim of misfortune.
At the very least, it doesn't seem like his shoulder is bothering him. He's walking a lot and striking out on only 18.8 percent of his at-bats. The results haven't been there, so you'd be selling low on him at this point.
Still, Joey didn't necessarily make a bad trade. Acquiring high-floor players like Brantley (who has been excellent) and Bogaerts is a solid way to make up for losing Bryant, and he also owns Mike Trout. Besides, there's no guarantee Bryant bounces back, even if his peripherals indicate positive regression.
If he doesn't rebound, expect him to be everyone's draft-day sleeper in 2020. It's highly unlikely he'd be taken in the third round again.
3 other candidates for positive regression
- Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, Indians: The worst, hopefully, is over for Ramirez. Owners burned a first-round pick - and in many cases, a top-three pick - to land the infielder because of his exceptional balance of power and speed. He was one of the few five-category players, and Ramirez hasn't lived up to the billing. He probably wasn't going to hit 39 home runs again, but he's batting .188 through 31 games with only two long balls. Still, his .211 BABIP is way below the two-time All-Star's career average on balls in play, and he's generating hard contact during 41.2 percent of his at-bats. A suppressed HR/FB rate may either suggest more bad luck, or it's a product of his 20.6 soft contact percentage. Ramirez's speed hasn't been impacted, though, as he's already swiped nine bases, which is behind only Tim Anderson and Adalberto Mondesi.
- Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B/3B, Cardinals: Carpenter has been miserable at the dish so far, batting .207/.322/.347 in 32 games. That's actually a step up from this point last season. He was hitting .158 over his first 31 games in 2018 and then bounced back strong, producing an MVP-caliber campaign with 36 homers. Carpenter simply doesn't make soft contact, and he keeps reducing his ground ball rate. His age (33) could make the veteran's owners wonder if he's toast, so buy low if you can.
- Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers: Seager's performance to date has been aggravating. He's shown minimal power and is batting just .223. The 25-year-old is coming off Tommy John and hip surgery, so he may still be finding his groove. There's a good chance he never reaches his ceiling in 2019, but Seager also likely won't get any worse, as the shortstop is displaying a strong eye while walking 16 times (11.5 percent). Make a claim if Seager's owner in your league drops him in a fit of frustration, or dangle a hot hand in hopes of cashing in.
Stashes & Streamers
- SP Jerad Eickhoff, Phillies (34 percent owned): For those burned by Nick Pivetta's horrendous start, his replacement may still be available on the wire. Eickhoff has been a revelation at the big-league level after spending most of 2018 on the shelf with multiple injuries and looking destined to become an afterthought in Philly this season. He's posted a 2.05 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 27 strikeouts in 22 innings. His next start comes against the Cardinals, which isn't ideal, but he's worth stashing if you have room.
- SP Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox (17 percent owned): You can't trust Lopez every time out, which was apparent when he served up six runs on eight hits against the Red Sox on Friday. Over his previous three starts, though, he was 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA while setting a career high with 14 strikeouts against the Tigers on April 28. Granted, the Tigers aren't a tough opponent, but neither are the Cleveland Indians (.636 OPS). Lopez takes on the Indians next week.
- OF Yordan Alvarez, Astros (30 percent owned): The Astros aren't lacking offensive weapons, and their lineup could soon get another boost from Triple-A. Alvarez, who may fit better as a DH, has been destroying the baseball in the PCL (admittedly, a hitter's heaven) while slashing .418/.505/.923 with 12 home runs in 25 games. There's no immediate timeline for a call-up, but Alvarez could soon replace Tyler White, who hasn't gone deep yet and is striking out in nearly 33 percent of his plate appearances. His ownership is starting to spike, so get him while you can.
- SP Mitch Keller, Pirates (4 percent owned): Jameson Taillon's elbow injury is all kinds of sad. The would-be Pirates ace hasn't been able to catch a break, and he could be facing a lengthy absence. Mitch Keller, Taillon's potential replacement, is a major-league ready prospect in Triple-A for the Pirates. The 23-year-old was already expected to make the jump this year, but Taillon's injury might open that door sooner - especially with Chris Archer also on the IL. Keller is 3-0 with a 3.48 ERA and 11.03 K/9 in six minor-league starts this season.
Mailbag
Last week, I asked readers to send questions and fantasy-related anecdotes. That door remains open if you want feedback on deals or answers to conundrums. You can reach me in the comments, at [email protected], or on Twitter as listed below.
Jason Wilson is theScore's resident fantasy baseball obsessive and has watched "Bull Durham" 88 times. He can be found on Twitter at @Jason_C_Wilson
